Lionel Messi left the field in Inter Miami's MLS match on Sunday reaching for his left hamstring. With the World Cup less than a month away, that image will have sent a chill through Argentina's entire camp.
He joins a list that was already long enough to make you wince. Lamine Yamal missed Barcelona's final weeks of the season with a muscle injury in his left leg. Alphonso Davies tore his hamstring during Bayern Munich's Champions League semi-final defeat to PSG. Cristian Romero has a knee problem with no recovery timeline given by Tottenham. Achraf Hakimi is sidelined with a right thigh injury. And that's before you get to the players already confirmed out.
Some aren't coming back at all
Brazil have lost both Rodrygo and Éder Militão. Germany are without Serge Gnabry, who tore his adductor in training. France striker Hugo Ekitike sustained an Achilles injury in April — that's a six-plus month recovery, meaning he misses the World Cup and likely the start of next season with Liverpool. The US are already dealing with Achilles injuries to Cameron Carter-Vickers and Patrick Agyemang, plus Johnny Cardoso's sprained ankle and Chris Richards' torn ankle ligaments.
Croatia's Luka Modrić broke his cheekbone last month but returned to action for AC Milan in time. Joško Gvardiol is back in training after four months out with a broken leg. Small mercies. Mbappé and Salah have both recovered. But the attrition rate across the board is striking.
Mikel Arteta called the demands on players "an accident waiting to happen." The timing is hard to argue with. The expanded Club World Cup wrapped up just months ago. The Champions League has grown. And now the bloated, co-hosted 48-team World Cup is next. Players are arriving at the biggest stage in football running on fumes, and the injury list is the receipts.
What this means for the betting picture
Argentina without a fit Messi is a fundamentally different proposition — their entire attacking structure, set-piece threat, and creative output runs through him. Any odds currently pricing them as contenders were built around him playing. Watch those numbers shift if his hamstring scan comes back badly. Spain's price similarly hinges on Yamal being available and sharp from the start, not eased back into form after weeks on the treatment table.
For Brazil, losing Rodrygo and Militão before a ball is kicked is a serious structural blow — Militão was the defensive spine of that backline. Brazil's odds to go deep deserve a second look without him.
The tournament hasn't started and the casualty list already reads like a mid-season injury update. Arteta said it was an accident waiting to happen. It's not waiting anymore.
