France are the team everyone is trying to solve — and most of our panel doesn't think anyone left can. But eight teams remain, and a few of them have a case. Here's how our writers see the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and the final playing out.
The Messi question nobody can answer cleanly
Put it this way: it's the 90th minute of the World Cup final, your team needs a goal, and you can pick Messi, Haaland, Mbappé, or Kane. Who do you want?
Most of our panel said Messi. At 39, he's scored in all five of Argentina's games so far, including a half-volley against Egypt that arrived from nowhere after barely touching the ball for 80 minutes. That's the thing about him — he doesn't need to be involved to be decisive. One of our writers put it well: he gives the sense of playing the game at a different pace to everyone else, with a capacity to choose the least complicated route to the right result. His penalty record (four from eight) is shakier than you'd expect, but in open play he still makes the difficulty look routine.
There's a statistical counter-argument, though. Haaland is scoring on 38.9% of his shots — the best rate of any player with at least 10 attempts at this tournament. He's averaging a goal every 14 touches. Norway's run probably ends when his does. That said, the panel mostly agreed: on the biggest night, you back Messi.
Who actually wins this thing?
The semi-final consensus was nearly unanimous: France v Spain in one half, England v Argentina in the other. Two writers went for Norway over England, which would set up a Haaland-Messi semi-final that would break the internet.
The final predictions were more split:
- EA: Spain 2-1 Argentina
- EB: Spain 2-1 Argentina — picked before the tournament, sticking with it
- BD: France 3-2 Argentina — revenge for 2022
- BAG: France 2-2 England (aet, England win 4-3 on pens)
- JR: Spain 2-3 Argentina
- LS: France 3-1 Argentina — pre-tournament pick, unchanged
- JW: France 2-1 England
Spain's case is built on defensive solidity — fewer than one goal conceded per game, clean sheets kept consistently, and a collective system where every player seems to understand their role down to the molecule. Luis de la Fuente has earned genuine praise from the panel for the buy-in he's generated. The knock on Spain is the same one they've carried for years: what happens when they need someone to finish?
France's case is simpler. Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise in the same attack is a problem that teams haven't found an answer to. Argentina have already conceded four goals in the knockout stages, and one writer's view was blunt: spirit and experience will carry you far, but that front three is simply too much firepower for their backline to handle across 90 minutes.
Argentina's counter-argument is Messi. He's responsible for 70% of their goals. The team around him is capable; he makes them champions. Whether that holds against France — if they meet again in the final, as in 2022 — is the defining question of this tournament.
Dark horses and the teams already missed
Norway are the panel's favourite left-field pick, though calling Haaland a dark horse feels like a stretch. He's scored at least seven goals in his first four World Cup appearances — the first player to do that since Gerd Müller 56 years ago. If Norway beat England and face Argentina in the semi-final, he'd be playing against two of his Manchester City teammates at centre-back. The optics alone are worth the price of admission.
Morocco also drew genuine respect. Under Mohamed Ouahbi — only four months into his first senior management job — they've evolved from 2022's defensive spoilers into a team that can control matches. Beating the Netherlands was not a minor achievement. They draw France in the quarter-finals, which is a brutal reward for their form.
The team most missed? The panel was divided between the Netherlands and Senegal. The Dutch went out on penalties to Morocco and were clinging on long before it reached that stage. Senegal had Belgium beaten for most of their last-32 tie, led by two goals with five minutes left, and somehow lost. Belgium's progress is a decent story. Senegal's exit is a better one.
