The United States got a workable draw. Group D pairs the hosts with Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey — three teams with genuine quality, but no heavyweight that should derail a side ranked 14th in the world playing in front of its own fans.
Mauricio Pochettino's squad will know what this group means. After a group-stage exit at the 2024 Copa America ended Gregg Berhalter's tenure, U.S. Soccer went out and hired a coach with a résumé that demands results. Pochettino doesn't rebuild — he delivers. The expectation on American soil isn't a valiant performance. It's a quarterfinal run, at minimum.
The USA's case — and its pressure
Christian Pulisic anchors this team. Around him, Chris Richards, Weston McKennie, and Antonee Robinson give the USMNT genuine depth in positions that used to be liabilities. This is, on paper, the strongest American squad in history.
That caveat — "on paper" — matters. The U.S. has never beaten a non-CONCACAF opponent in the World Cup knockout stage. Not once. The 2002 quarterfinal run, their modern-era peak, came entirely against teams from their own region. Everything beyond the last 16 remains uncharted territory, and odds on the Americans going deep should factor in that psychological ceiling as much as their talent level.
FIFA world ranking: 14th. Regional ranking: 1st in CONCACAF. World Cup titles: 0. The gap between those first two numbers and the third is what 2026 is supposed to start closing.
Three opponents who won't roll over
Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010. That's a 16-year absence that ends under Gustavo Alfaro, who steadied the ship after a rocky qualifying campaign. Miguel Almirón, Julio Enciso, and Gustavo Gómez give them a spine that can genuinely hurt any team in this group. La Albirroja scraped through as the sixth-placed CONMEBOL qualifier — but they scraped through, and South American football has a habit of producing results that make group-stage form irrelevant.
Australia carry momentum from a strong qualifying campaign, finishing second in their AFC group behind Japan. Tony Popovic's side has won five or more games in 2025, though three straight friendly defeats against the USA, Venezuela, and Colombia dented some of that confidence heading into the draw. Keep an eye on Nestory Irankunda and Mohamed Toure — both young, both direct, and both capable of announcing themselves on the biggest stage. Mat Ryan in goal and Jackson Irvine in midfield provide the experience to back them up. The Socceroos' best World Cup results — Round of 16 in 2006 and 2022 — came against eventual champions. They know how to compete even when they don't win.
Turkey are arguably the most dangerous side in this group. Ranked 24th globally, they reached the Euro 2024 quarterfinals under Vincenzo Montella and have two players — Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz — who could be the standout names of the entire tournament. Guler's breakout at the Euros announced a generational talent. Yildiz at Juventus is already drawing comparisons that would have seemed absurd two years ago. Add Ferdi Kadioglu and Merih Demiral, and Turkey have the quality to finish above the hosts if the Americans stumble. Their World Cup record is thin — just two prior appearances, including a third-place finish in 2002 — but this squad is built differently.
Group D at a glance
- USA — FIFA ranking: 14th | Coach: Mauricio Pochettino | Key players: Christian Pulisic (AC Milan), Antonee Robinson (Fulham), Weston McKennie (Juventus), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace)
- Turkey — FIFA ranking: 24th | Coach: Vincenzo Montella | Key players: Arda Guler (Real Madrid), Kenan Yildiz (Juventus), Ferdi Kadioglu (Brighton), Merih Demiral (Al Ahli)
- Australia — FIFA ranking: 26th | Coach: Tony Popovic | Key players: Mat Ryan (Levante), Jackson Irvine (FC St Pauli), Nestory Irankunda (Watford)
- Paraguay — FIFA ranking: 39th | Coach: Gustavo Alfaro | Key players: Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United), Julio Enciso (Strasbourg), Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras)
The Group D winner enters the knockout stage on the top half of the bracket, facing a third-place qualifier from Groups B, E, F, I, or J. The runner-up draws the Group G winner. On paper, this is one of the more navigable groups in the tournament — but Paraguay's South American pedigree, Turkey's individual quality, and Australia's collective structure mean none of these three games should be treated as formalities. The hosts' odds of topping the group look solid at face value. Whether the pressure of a nation watching translates into performance or paralysis is a question the schedule will answer.
