Belgium beat the United States 5-2 on American soil in March. That's the competitive reality of Group G — and everything else around it is something much harder to quantify.
Iran is preparing to play a World Cup on the territory of a country it is currently at war with. That's not hyperbole. That's the situation. FIFA has confirmed the matches go ahead as scheduled, rejecting Iran's reported request to move their group-stage games to Mexico. So Team Melli will train in Tucson, Arizona, open the tournament against New Zealand in Inglewood, and do all of this while the political temperature between Tehran and Washington sits somewhere between volatile and explosive.
The Iran situation is unlike anything at this tournament
Before a March friendly against Nigeria, Iranian players held pink and purple backpacks during the national anthem — a tribute to victims of a missile strike on an elementary school on February 28. Evidence points to a U.S. missile. That image, that gesture, is going to follow this squad through every press conference and pre-match ceremony between now and whenever they go out.
There's also the matter of the June 26 fixture against Egypt in Seattle — the same weekend as Pride events in the city. FIFA designated it the "Pride Match." Both Iran and Egypt formally objected on religious and cultural grounds. Iran criminalises homosexuality with penalties up to and including death. Egypt isn't far behind on that spectrum. FIFA held firm. The match stays. Seattle will be loud about it.
On the pitch, Iran are ranked 21st in the world and coached by former player Amir Ghalenoei, who lost only one match across Asian qualifying. Captain Mehdi Taremi has 57 goals in 102 international appearances — he's currently at Olympiacos after spells at Porto and Inter Milan. This is Iran's fourth consecutive World Cup, and their seventh overall. They've never made it out of the group stage. Nothing about this group changes that trajectory on paper.
Belgium are the team to beat — if they stay healthy
Rudi Garcia's Belgium side opens on June 15 against Egypt in Seattle. They are the class of this group, full stop. Kevin De Bruyne — four World Cups, 36 goals in 117 caps, now at Napoli after recently returning from a thigh injury — is the fulcrum. Jeremy Doku at Manchester City gives them an attacking dimension that neither Egypt, New Zealand, nor Iran can match.
The caveat is Romelu Lukaku, sidelined for months with a hamstring injury with his World Cup availability genuinely unclear. Belgium with Lukaku available and Belgium without him are measurably different propositions up front. Their odds of topping the group shorten or lengthen considerably depending on his fitness in the coming weeks.
Egypt's history at the World Cup is not encouraging — three appearances, zero wins. Mohamed Salah is the obvious headline, though he missed Egypt's scoreless draw against Spain in March with a muscle issue. The more pressing subplot: Salah has announced he's leaving Liverpool after nine seasons, which means the entire pre-tournament window will be consumed by transfer speculation around him. Whether that's a distraction or motivation is genuinely unknown.
- Iran — Ranked 21st, coached by Ghalenoei, captained by Taremi (57 goals in 102 games). Opens vs. New Zealand in Inglewood.
- Belgium — 15th World Cup, third place in 2018. De Bruyne fit, Lukaku's status uncertain. Opens vs. Egypt on June 15.
- Egypt — Three World Cup appearances, zero wins. Salah returning from injury, future club situation unresolved.
- New Zealand — Ranked 85th. Captain Chris Wood (45 international goals) returning from five months out injured.
New Zealand are the group's cannon fodder on paper — 85th in the world, no history of advancing past the group stage in 1982 or 2010. Chris Wood carries the attack but spent five months on the sidelines with Nottingham Forest and is still working back to full fitness. The All Whites will need everything to go right just to grab a point.
Belgium advance. The second spot is Egypt's to lose — unless Salah's fitness and focus are compromised by the Liverpool exit noise. Iran will carry more political weight into this tournament than any squad in decades, and it will cost them nothing on the football side either way: they've never cleared the group stage regardless.
