Italy won't be there. For the third consecutive World Cup, one of the sport's most decorated nations is watching from home — the first former champion ever to miss three straight tournaments. That's not a blip. That's a structural collapse, and Serie A's inability to match the financial firepower of the Premier League, La Liga, and Bundesliga sits at the root of it.
But the Italian top flight will still have a meaningful presence in North America this summer. Several Serie A players arrive with genuine trophy ambitions, and at least one of them is playing for a team the bookmakers have circling the top of the outright market.
Martinez, Leao, Pulisic: The Big Three
Lautaro Martinez is the headline act. The Inter Milan striker has 36 goals in 75 Argentina appearances — a rate that holds up against any forward in international football right now. He's been sidelined since a calf injury in February's Champions League, but is expected back before the season ends. If he returns to full sharpness, reigning champion Argentina's odds of going back-to-back look very reasonable.
Rafael Leao is the wildcard. Five goals and seven assists in 43 Portugal caps is a thin return for a player of his ability, and fitness concerns have clouded his recent months — he even returned to Portugal for independent medical advice. The question isn't whether Leao has the talent to hurt teams at a World Cup. It's whether he'll arrive fit enough to show it. A fully functioning Leao changes Portugal's ceiling considerably.
Christian Pulisic is carrying a different kind of weight. Eight games without a goal for the United States — a career-high drought — heading into a home tournament with Mauricio Pochettino under pressure after losses to Belgium and Portugal. Pulisic will start regardless. He always does. But co-hosts facing Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey in the group stage cannot afford their best player to keep going quiet in an USA shirt.
McTominay and the Scotland Long Shot
Scott McTominay's transformation since joining Napoli from Manchester United in 2024 has been one of Serie A's better stories. He scored the goal that sent Scotland to this World Cup — a finish in a 4-2 win over Denmark that will be replayed for decades in Edinburgh pubs.
Now he faces Brazil, Morocco, and Haiti in the group stage. Scotland advancing would rank among the tournament's genuine surprises, and their chances are almost entirely tied to how McTominay performs. When he's good, they're competitive. When he's off, they look like what the table says they are.
- Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan / Argentina) — 36 international goals, injury concern, key to back-to-back bid
- Rafael Leao (AC Milan / Portugal) — fitness the decisive factor; talent was never in doubt
- Christian Pulisic (AC Milan / USA) — guaranteed starter for the co-hosts, goalless run a real problem
- Scott McTominay (Napoli / Scotland) — the engine of a Scotland side that needs everything to go right
- Nico Paz & Máximo Perrone (Como / Argentina) — younger faces in a squad with real depth
Italy's absence means a chunk of Serie A's finest — those who play for the Azzurri — are grounded this summer. Financial inequality between leagues fed into a youth development shortfall, which fed into this. Three consecutive absences. The embarrassment is earned.
