The 2026 World Cup kicks off June 11 in Mexico City, and with 48 teams across 12 groups, this is the biggest betting slate the tournament has ever produced. More teams means more group matches, more upsets, and more angles to play — whether you're pricing tournament winners or picking group stage results match by match.
Spain enters as the slight +440 favorite to lift the trophy, edging out France at +460. Argentina, the defending champions, are in the mix too. If you want a long-shot with genuine pedigree, Brazil and Germany are both lurking at longer prices despite their recent World Cup stumbles.
The Opening Match and Early Group Odds
Mexico vs. South Africa at Estadio Azteca is the tournament opener — June 11 at 3 p.m. ET. Mexico are -220 on the 90-minute money line, South Africa sit at +600, and the draw is +320. As a host nation with the Azteca crowd behind them, Mexico are expected to get the job done, though they haven't advanced past the Round of 16 since 1986. That's a long drought to bet against blindly.
Group D is the one to watch for value hunters. The USA (+140), Turkey (+175), Paraguay (+400), and Australia (+750) make for the tightest group in the tournament. Turkey are actually the top-ranked side at No. 13 in the FIFA rankings, above the US at No. 14 — which makes the American odds look slightly generous. Both teams should advance, but neither is a banker.
Group H is the one-horse race. Spain are -450 to win it, with Uruguay a distant +370 and Saudi Arabia at +1800. That kind of price reflects Spain's Euro 2024 win and their Nations League runner-up finish, plus Lamine Yamal coming into this tournament as arguably the most exciting 18-year-old in world football.
Tournament Favorites Broken Down
Spain (+440) lead the outright market for good reason. They're ranked No. 1 in the world, won Euro 2024, and have a squad built around elite midfield control — Pedri, Rodri, Fabian Ruiz — plus the terrifying forward combination of Yamal, Nico Williams, and Dani Olmo. The only knock: Spain has failed to get past the Round of 16 in three consecutive World Cups before winning in 2010. This group doesn't carry that fragility.
France at +460 are almost impossible to dismiss. Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and a squad that's been to back-to-back finals — losing to Argentina on penalties in 2022 — gives them the ceiling to go all the way. Group I looks comfortable: Norway, Senegal, and Iraq. Expect France to arrive at the knockout stage with momentum.
Argentina at +600 (approximately, depending on your book) are the defending champions and carry the world's No. 2 ranking. Messi, now 38, will almost certainly be playing his final World Cup. He had seven goals and three assists in 2022. The supporting cast — Alvarez, Lautaro, Mac Allister, Fernandez — is good enough to win this without Messi carrying everything.
Germany's recent World Cup record is a concern — group stage exits in 2018 and 2022 — but their Euro 2024 quarterfinal run and Nations League form suggest they've rebuilt. At -310 to win Group E, they should cruise past Ecuador, Ivory Coast, and Curacao before the real tests arrive.
Best Sportsbook Promos for the World Cup
Several top US sportsbooks are running sign-up offers worth using before the tournament starts:
- FanDuel Sportsbook: Bet $5 for 7 days, get $350 in bonus bets. No promo code needed.
- DraftKings Sportsbook: Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets instantly after your first qualifying wager settles. Bonus arrives as eight $25 slips within 72 hours.
- BetMGM (code: CBSSPORTS): Up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.
- bet365: Bet $10, get $365 in bonus bets — win or lose on the first wager. Offer must be claimed within 30 days of signing up.
- Caesars (code: CBSDYW): Bet $1 and get 100% profit boosts on your next 10 wagers.
- Fanatics Sportsbook (code: CBSFAN): 10 bet matches up to $100 each over 10 days, or a 100%+ profit boost token for 5 days.
- Hard Rock Bet: Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.
Online sports betting is now legal in more than 30 US states plus Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, so most readers will have access to at least a few of these platforms.
Key Betting Types Explained
If you're new to betting soccer, the three-way money line is the foundation. Unlike most American sports, soccer offers three outcomes: home win, away win, or draw. Back the wrong team, get a draw, and you lose — there's no push. Draw no bet removes that risk but lowers the payout. Double chance lets you cover a win or a draw for one team, though again the odds compress accordingly.
The spread works similarly to other sports — a -1.5 line means a team must win by two goals or more. Over/under is typically set at 2.5 goals, making three goals the key number. Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is one of the most popular markets in international football and worth tracking as group stage results come in and you get a feel for which teams are leaky defensively.
For futures, the Golden Boot is a compelling market. Mbappe had a hat trick in the 2022 final. Harry Kane won it in 2018. Erling Haaland in Group I with Norway is the kind of price you check early. And tournament winner bets will shift dramatically after the Round of 16 — knowing when to hedge or double down is as important as the initial pick.
World Cup Schedule at a Glance
The group stage runs from June 11 through June 27, with the Round of 16 starting July 4. Quarterfinals are July 9-11, semifinals July 14-15, and the final is July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Some matches worth marking early: Brazil vs. Morocco on June 13 in New York (Morocco reached the 2022 semifinals and won't be a walkover), USA vs. Turkey on June 25 in Los Angeles (a genuine coin flip on paper), and Argentina vs. Algeria on June 16 in Kansas City to see whether the champions arrive in form or not.
Spain vs. Uruguay on June 26 — the group H decider in Guadalajara — could effectively be a last-16 preview. Uruguay at +370 to win that match is a number worth considering if Darwin Nunez is fit and firing.
48 teams. 104 matches. Three host nations. The 2026 World Cup is the largest in the tournament's history, and the betting markets are deeper than they've ever been. Use the group stage to gather information before committing serious money to the knockout rounds — that's where the real decisions get made.
