Poland vs Sweden Prediction

Contrasting form in the group stage

Sweden have won three and drawn one of their last four Nations League outings, including wins over Romania and Poland either side of a draw in Bosnia. That's a tidy recent run in this specific competition.

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Poland to win

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Draw

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Sweden to win

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Poland: 8 completed matches; Sweden: 14 completed matches.

Poland

8 matches

Win

37.5% 3 / 8

Draw

25% 2 / 8

Loss

37.5% 3 / 8

Scored

12

Conceded

8

Difference

+4

Sweden

14 matches

Win

50% 7 / 14

Draw

21.4% 3 / 14

Loss

28.6% 4 / 14

Scored

28

Conceded

23

Difference

+5

Poland's form is more up and down. A 6-0 thrashing of Romania sits right next to back-to-back defeats to Sweden and Bosnia & Herzegovina, so there's genuine inconsistency there.

Zooming out, Sweden's wider 2026 sample includes some big results both ways, heavy wins over weaker sides but also defeats to France and the Netherlands at the World Cup. Their Nations League form specifically has been their strongest patch.

Sweden's current Nations League form is clearly the stronger of the two, even if their results elsewhere this year have been mixed.

Comparative Team Statistics: Poland vs Sweden

Sweden have had the upper hand lately

Sweden have won three of the last four meetings between these two, including a 3-1 win just last month in this same group. Poland's only victory in this set of games goes back to 2022.

Two of those Sweden wins came by a single goal though, so it hasn't been one-sided on the scoreboard even when Sweden have come out on top.

A gap has already opened up

Sweden sit top of the group with 10 points from four games, while Poland are third on four points from the same number of matches. That's a seven-point gap already after a third of the group completed.

Poland's draw and two defeats in that spell explain the gap, while Sweden have lost nothing so far in the group.

Limited team news so far

There isn't much to go on yet for team news this far out. The only entry on file is a yellow card picked up by Kiwior in Poland's squad, which on its own doesn't tell us anything about who's available for this one.

Poland:

Penalty cards:

J. Kiwior x 1

With kickoff still a month away from the data we have, squad news is likely to firm up closer to the match.