Accrington ST vs Northampton Prediction

Form guide: a clear gap in recent results

Looking at each team's last twenty matches, Accrington have won seven, drawn nine and lost four, scoring 32 and conceding 22. Northampton's record over the same length of sample is five wins, six draws and nine losses, with 18 scored and 23 conceded.

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1

Accrington ST to win

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Odds2.15

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£43.00

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Draw

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Odds3.2

Potential return

£64.00

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2

Northampton to win

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Odds3.4

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£68.00

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Potential returns include your stake. Odds may change.

Accrington ST: 20 completed matches; Northampton: 20 completed matches.

Accrington ST

20 matches

Win

35% 7 / 20

Draw

45% 9 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

32

Conceded

22

Difference

+10

Northampton

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

30% 6 / 20

Loss

45% 9 / 20

Scored

18

Conceded

23

Difference

-5

Northampton's most recent result was a 2-0 home win over Colchester, but before that they'd lost at home to Tranmere and away at Grimsby. Accrington's sample includes more draws than big winning runs, but they've lost far fewer games than Northampton have.

Accrington's underlying form is noticeably steadier than Northampton's over this stretch.

Comparative Team Statistics: Accrington ST vs Northampton

Head-to-head: old meetings, limited relevance

These two have met eleven times in the data available, stretching back to 2011. The two most recent meetings came in League One back in 2020 and 2021, a goalless draw and a narrow 1-0 home win for Northampton.

Most of this history is from a different division and a different era for both clubs, so it doesn't tell us much about where either side stands heading into this fixture.

League position: a real gap on the table

Accrington currently sit 10th with 14 points from 11 games. Northampton are down in 22nd with 10 points from 9 games, meaning they've played two fewer matches but are still well adrift in the table.

That gap lines up with the form numbers. Accrington are picking up points more consistently, even allowing for the extra couple of fixtures they've had.

Northampton need a response just to climb away from the bottom end of the table.

Players to watch

Accrington's main attacking threat on the data available is C. Caton, who has five goals in seven matches, a strong return for a League Two forward. On the disciplinary side, Northampton's L. Evans has picked up a red card in his last four appearances, which is worth keeping an eye on without assuming it rules him out here.

Accrington ST:

Best scorers:

C. Caton - 5

Penalty cards:

D. Matthews x 1 x 3

J. Woods x 4

Northampton:

Penalty cards:

L. Evans x 1 x 1

Accrington also have a couple of players close to accumulating yellow cards, J. Woods and D. Matthews, though neither has been sent off this season on the numbers we have.

How this one might play out

The match-winner and handicap markets are fairly tight, with Accrington only very marginally favoured on the Asian handicap line. That lines up with a home side who are clearly in better form but not completely dominant, against an away side capable of the odd positive result, as shown by their last match against Colchester.

Given Accrington's goals for and against numbers sit higher than Northampton's across the sample, and neither defence has been especially mean, there's a reasonable chance of goals at both ends rather than a one-sided shutout.