Accrington ST vs Northampton Prediction

Recent form across the board

Looking at the last 20 matches in all competitions for each side, Accrington have four wins, nine draws and seven losses, scoring 27 and conceding 31. That sample includes League Two games, cup ties and pre-season friendlies, so it's not a clean league-only read, but the draw-heavy pattern stands out.

Accrington ST: 20 completed matches; Northampton: 20 completed matches.

Accrington ST

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

50% 10 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

26

Conceded

26

Difference

0

Northampton

20 matches

Win

15% 3 / 20

Draw

30% 6 / 20

Loss

55% 11 / 20

Scored

16

Conceded

31

Difference

-15

Northampton's equivalent sample is rougher: three wins, five draws and 12 losses, with 16 scored and 33 conceded. Some of those matches were still in League One before their drop into this division, so their adjustment to League Two football is still playing out.

Accrington's habit of drawing games and Northampton's heavier defeat count both suggest goals rather than control will likely decide this.

Comparative Team Statistics: Accrington ST vs Northampton

A long-running but dated rivalry

These two have met eleven times stretching back to 2011, with the most recent meeting a 2021 goalless draw at Accrington's place. Before that, Northampton won 1-0 at home in a League One fixture.

It's a mixed history with some high-scoring games thrown in, including a 4-5 and a 1-5, but given how long ago most of these came, they don't tell us much about either side's current shape.

Where they sit right now

Based on the table positions we have, Accrington are 19th with eight games played, seven points on the board from one win, four draws and three losses. Northampton are just below them in 22nd, with six points from seven matches.

Neither side is pulling away from trouble. These numbers only cover the two clubs involved, so we can't say exactly how crowded it is around them, but both are clearly having to fight for points early on.

Two sides with almost identical points-per-game, which points to a tight, nervy contest rather than one team dominating.

Players to watch

C. Caton has been Accrington's main source of goals, with five in seven matches, so he's the obvious threat if the home side get space in behind.

Accrington ST:

Best scorers:

C. Caton - 5

Penalty cards:

D. Matthews x 1 x 3

J. Woods x 4

Northampton:

Penalty cards:

L. Evans x 1 x 1

On the disciplinary side, Accrington's J. Woods and D. Matthews have picked up a handful of yellow cards between them, while Northampton's L. Evans has already seen a red card this season. None of this confirms who's actually available for this specific fixture, but it's worth keeping an eye on.