Six spots. Sixteen European nations. A handful of intercontinental wildcards. The final push for the 2026 World Cup starts now — and the paths to qualification are far from straightforward.
The expanded 48-team tournament already has 42 confirmed entrants, with hosts Canada, Mexico, and the USA automatic inclusions. What remains are the UEFA play-offs — eight semi-finals feeding into four finals, handing out Paths A through D — and the intercontinental play-off, trimming six teams down to two.
Italy Sweat, Wales Dare to Dream
The most contentious call among our writers is Italy. Three of four back the Azzurri to squeeze through, but nobody's backing them with any confidence. They haven't found a coherent identity under recent setups, and a potential trip to Cardiff — where Wales have made life very difficult for visiting sides in major matches — is a genuine banana skin. Wales have home advantage for both potential matches, and that's no small detail.
As one of our writers put it bluntly: "I would not want to be an Italian fan." They have the squad names — Donnarumma, Barella, Tonali — but squad names don't win play-off games when the system is broken. If you're pricing Italy as heavy favourites to qualify, be careful.
Wales beating Italy on home soil would be one of the results of the play-off round. At Cardiff, it's not unthinkable.
Gyokeres, Guler, Yildiz — The Names to Watch
Sweden's qualifying campaign was genuinely poor. They didn't win a single group match. Still without Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski, Graham Potter — who signed a four-year contract just weeks ago — needs to immediately justify the faith placed in him. The good news? Viktor Gyokeres exists. If Elanga and Bergvall can supply him, Sweden have a puncher's chance against Ukraine and then potentially Poland.
A Sweden vs Poland semi-final would be a proper contest: Gyokeres against Robert Lewandowski, two of Europe's most reliable strikers in a winner-takes-all. That's a match worth watching regardless of what else is happening.
Turkey feel like the value play in Path C. Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz are both 20, both capable of moments that change games, and the team showed real quality reaching the Euro 2024 quarter-finals. Romania and then potentially Slovakia or Kosovo stand between them and the World Cup. That's a manageable draw. Turkey's qualifying odds deserve a second look.
The Writers' Picks
Our four contributors were asked to name their six qualifiers. Here's where they landed:
- Tim: Wales, Sweden, Turkey, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Bolivia
- Felipe: DR Congo, Iraq, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Republic of Ireland
- Phil: DR Congo, Bolivia, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, North Macedonia
- Eduardo: DR Congo, Bolivia, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Republic of Ireland
Sweden and Turkey are the consensus picks across all four — the closest thing to certainty in what is otherwise an unpredictable bracket. Italy get through in three of four predictions. DR Congo are the overwhelming pick from the intercontinental play-off, with Bolivia backed by three of the four despite not winning in their last several fixtures.
Bolivia did beat Brazil, Chile, and Colombia during qualifying, which shows a ceiling. But two do-or-die play-off games demand consistency, and that's not something this Bolivia side has demonstrated recently.
Republic of Ireland split opinion sharply. They beat Portugal and Hungary to close qualifying in dramatic style, and they'd have home advantage in the Path D final if they get there. But Czech Republic and Denmark — both tournament-experienced sides — stand in the way. The Danes probably have too much for them, but stranger things have happened in a one-game format on home soil in Dublin.
The last time a play-off system felt this open, it produced memorable results. With no clear favourite across multiple paths, the outright qualification markets are worth picking through carefully.
