Three days in, and Folarin Balogun is already making a statement. The USMNT striker scored twice in 19 minutes during a 4-1 demolition of Paraguay — one a composed side-foot finish, the other a left-footed blast after leaving a defender on the floor. He could have had three, but an early offside call wiped it out.
At 24, Balogun is no longer a project player. His 22-goal loan season at Reims in 2022-23 earned him a permanent Monaco move, and now, having committed internationally to the U.S., he looks like the most dangerous striker in this tournament so far. Early Golden Boot odds just shifted.
Who's chasing him
Eight players sit on one goal, and the range tells its own story.
- Raul Jimenez (Mexico) — finally scored at a World Cup on his fourth attempt, aged 35. His 46th international goal puts him level with Jared Borgetti in Mexico's all-time list, behind only Javier Hernandez (52). Remarkable, given what he came through after his 2020 skull fracture.
- Julian Quinones (Mexico) — scored the tournament's opening goal and celebrated with Siphiwe Tshabalala's 2010 knee-slide. The detail that makes it work: Tshabalala's iconic goal at that World Cup was against Mexico.
- Hwang In-beom (South Korea) — a chipped finish over the Czech keeper that showed real composure, then turned provider for the winner. Feyenoord's midfielder is operating at a level above this stage usually demands.
- Oh Hyeon-gyu (South Korea) — the Besiktas striker got on the end of Hwang's cross in the 80th minute to seal a 2-1 win. Seven goals in 28 internationals before this. Quietly dangerous.
- Ladislav Krejci (Czech Republic) — headed the Czechs in front before South Korea turned it around. The Wolves defender only became national captain in March 2026; this wasn't the debut he wanted.
- Cyle Larin (Canada) — a 78th-minute deflected volley earned Canada a 1-1 draw with Bosnia. Not pretty, but it counts.
- Jovo Lukic (Bosnia & Herzegovina) — a 27-year-old who plays in the Romanian top flight and had never scored for his country before heading Bosnia ahead against Canada. First international goal, World Cup stage. Strange sport.
- Gio Reyna (U.S.) — came off the bench and scored with the outside of his right foot in stoppage time. The ear-covering celebration suggested he had something to say. At 23, he usually does.
- Mauricio (Paraguay) — consolation goal in a 4-1 loss. Palmeiras-based, represented Brazil at youth level, made his Paraguay debut in March. A footnote for now.
The big names haven't arrived yet
Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane are the only two active players in this tournament who have won the Golden Boot before. Neither has scored yet.
Mbappe comes in off 25 La Liga goals and 15 in the Champions League for Real Madrid — 40 games, 40 goals in round numbers. He's also on 56 international goals, one behind Olivier Giroud's French all-time record. He will not stay quiet for long.
Kane's numbers this season are even more striking: 36 Bundesliga goals, the most of any striker in Europe's top five leagues, plus 14 in the Champions League. He's been clinical for Bayern and increasingly influential for England. Any sportsbook pricing him outside the top three for this award deserves scrutiny.
Erling Haaland arrives at Norway's first World Cup since 1998 on the back of 27 Premier League goals for Manchester City. He's never played at a major tournament. That is either a problem or irrelevant, depending on how you read him.
And then there's Lionel Messi, 12 goals in 14 MLS appearances this season at 38, seven goals at the 2022 World Cup when he finally won the thing. He is not a Golden Boot favourite. He is, however, Lionel Messi.
Just Fontaine's record of 13 goals — set in 1958, in a 6-team format, without VAR, without rotation squads — has stood for 68 years. With 48 teams and 104 matches in 2026, the arithmetic at least makes a serious challenge more plausible than it's ever been. Whether anyone is actually capable of it is another question entirely.
The tiebreaker, if it comes to it: most assists first, then goals scored in fewest minutes. Worth remembering if the race tightens in the later rounds — as it almost always does.
