"The U.S. cannot, unequivocally, win the World Cup." Tim Howard said it. Got roasted for it. He was being honest.
Sitting in the SoFi Stadium press box watching Spain dismantle Austria 3-0 — and it should have been six — makes that honesty land differently. Lamine Yamal gliding past defenders. Wave after wave of Spanish attackers arriving like the whole thing was choreographed. Austria weren't bad. They were just playing a different sport. That's how good Spain are right now, and they're almost certainly on a collision course with the United States if both teams keep winning.
Which is exactly why this is the moment to stop fast-forwarding.
What the USMNT have actually built
For the first time since 1930, the United States won back-to-back World Cup matches. They beat Paraguay 4-1, handled Australia 2-0, and clinched Group D in two games. The third match against Türkiye was essentially a rest day — Pochettino rotated freely and the Americans still nearly won.
Then Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32. A 2-0 win that snapped a 10-match winless streak against European opposition at World Cups stretching back to the Qatar draw against England. It was only the second time the USMNT had won a knockout match in the modern era — the other being a Round of 16 victory over Mexico in 2002. The first World Cup win over a European nation in 23 years. That is the actual list of comparable moments. It's a short one.
The response? Immediate bracket math. Can they beat Belgium? Can they beat Spain? Can they reach the final?
The United States entered this tournament ranked 16th in the world. Paraguay sit 34th, Australia 28th, Türkiye 27th, Bosnia 61st. Quality opponents, but ones the Americans were expected to handle. They did. That's not a small thing — plenty of ranked teams don't. But Belgium, currently 9th in the world, represent a genuine step up. Former U.S. coach Bruce Arena called it "their first real test in this World Cup." He's not wrong.
Belgium on Monday, then maybe Spain
The Americans can beat Belgium. That's not wishful thinking — it's a legitimate reading of where both teams are. If they do, expect the largest television audience ever for a soccer match in the United States. The country is paying attention in a way it hasn't in years. Pochettino has given this team an identity built on confidence rather than damage limitation. They don't play not to lose anymore.
But Spain, France, Argentina or Brazil in succession? Howard put the math plainly: "The U.S. will have to play the greatest game they've ever played... four games in a row. It's literally impossible for the U.S. to win the World Cup. That's just the reality."
People heard negativity. He was describing the tournament bracket.
Spain have Yamal, Rodri — the reigning Ballon d'Or winner — and a depth of attacking talent that would reshape most international squads just by lending out its bench players. If the USMNT quarter-final odds look long against a team like that, they should. That's information, not pessimism.
If Belgium fall on Monday, enjoy it like it's the last game that will ever be played. Don't open the bracket. Don't start the Spain conversation before the final whistle has cooled. These are the moments — not the theoretical trophy at the end — that people actually remember. The 2002 run to the quarters. Landon Donovan against Algeria in 2010. The Belgium game in 2014 that ended in extra time and broke a thousand hearts.
This team has already earned a place on that list. Belgium could make it longer.
