"To not spend time on that is very strange." That's Geir Jordet, professor at the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences and arguably the world's leading authority on penalty psychology, and he's talking about the teams who still treat shootouts as an afterthought. At this World Cup, fewer and fewer of them remain.
Germany and the Netherlands are already on flights home after shootout exits to Paraguay and Morocco respectively. Belgium's Youri Tielemans, meanwhile, converted a composed stoppage-time penalty in extra time to complete a comeback win over Senegal. The difference between those outcomes wasn't luck. It was preparation — and increasingly, data.
What the research actually shows
Jordet's book Pressure catalogues every one of the 718 shots from men's penalty shootouts at the World Cup, European Championship and Champions League between 1970 and 2023. One finding stands out: 53% of players who missed behaved the same way afterwards — making themselves smaller, falling to the ground, hiding their faces, avoiding eye contact with teammates. The physical response to failure is almost universal.
But the pre-kick behaviour matters just as much. Jordet flags the moment the referee blows his whistle as a critical tell. "Some players look at this as like a starting gun," he said. "The ones who react to the whistle very quickly — that to me is not a particularly good sign because it could indicate that their focus is basically on their emotions and not on the task at hand."
There are exceptions. Kylian Mbappe is one of the quickest takers on the planet, but speed is woven into everything he does — it's not anxiety, it's identity. Context always matters.
Goalkeepers have flipped the dynamic
Morocco's Yassine Bounou — known as Bono — has turned the shootout duel into something closer to a confidence trick. Against the Netherlands, two Dutch players missed the target entirely and Bono saved a third. His method? A double fake movement on the goal line, timed to make the taker believe he's going left before shifting right. Against penalty takers who wait for the keeper to commit, it's close to unbeatable.
"Goalkeepers are more prepared," Jordet said. "We're seeing how goalkeepers have gained a little bit of an edge by just being smarter than the penalty takers and using analytics and data better than what we have seen in the past." That shift in edge matters for anyone assessing shootout odds — the keeper's preparation is now as relevant as the taker's nerve.
England know that particular lesson all too well. Six shootout losses in seven attempts through the '90s and early 2000s eventually forced the FA to build what Jordet calls "big penalty projects" — structured, psychological, comprehensive. Under Thomas Tuchel, the programme continues. "It's just an important and very specific part of football," Tuchel said, describing it as a discipline built on execution and repetition, not hope.
Brazil's Carlo Ancelotti has gone further than most, splitting his squad into two teams for full shootout rehearsals — players walking from the halfway line, approaching the spot, completing the ritual — while he studies their body language and tendencies in real time. Spain's Luis de la Fuente was blunt: "Kicking a penalty is not something that happens at random. We have specialists in penalties. Not everybody can shoot a penalty."
Tielemans put it more plainly after his winner against Senegal: "We've been practising the last few days. In that moment you just try to be confident and trust your abilities." Simple enough. Just not easy.
Somewhere in the knockout rounds ahead, a young player's tournament — maybe his career — will be defined by twelve yards and a goalkeeper who did his homework.
