The Netherlands have been here before — literally. Three World Cup finals, three losses. Ronald Koeman's side enter Group F as clear favourites, but this draw isn't the free pass it might look like on paper.
Japan will do that to you. Two years ago in Qatar, they beat Germany and Spain in the same group stage. If you're pricing the Dutch as bankers to top this group, that record deserves more than a footnote.
The Dutch are good — but are they good enough?
Koeman can call on Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, and Cody Gakpo — a Premier League-heavy core that's solid without being elite by historical Dutch standards. The country that gave the world total football in the 1970s hasn't reproduced that kind of generational talent since. This is a good team, not a great one.
For context: Koeman won the European Championship with the Netherlands as a player in 1988. His best result managing them was a Nations League runner-up spot in 2019. Close, not quite — which is a theme with this nation and this tournament.
Japan's squad is built almost entirely from European football now, with Bayern Munich defender Hiroki Ito and Brighton forward Kaoru Mitoma among their key names. They've qualified for eight straight World Cups and are targeting a third consecutive run past the group stage. They've never gone beyond the round of 16, but given what they did to Germany and Spain, dismissing them is a mistake with real consequences for anyone betting Dutch to win the group.
Sweden's firepower, Tunisia's potential, and why this group isn't settled
Sweden shouldn't even be here by rights. They finished bottom of their qualifying group without winning a single game. It was Nations League form under new coach Graham Potter — rebuilding after spells at Chelsea and West Ham — that kept them alive, before they overcame Ukraine and Poland in the playoffs.
None of that squares with having Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres leading your attack. Two of Europe's most clinical strikers, playing behind a team that couldn't win a qualifier. Potter needs to work that out fast. If he does, Sweden's odds become interesting. If the dysfunction from qualifying carries over, they're group-stage tourists.
Tunisia rounds out the group with a genuine chip on their shoulder. They've never made it out of the group phase in six previous World Cup appearances, but in Qatar they beat defending champion France and drew with Denmark — and still went home. Sabri Lamouchi has taken over as coach, and 21-year-old PSG midfielder Khalil Ayari represents the new generation pushing through.
- Netherlands — Favourites, but their ceiling at major tournaments has a well-documented glass floor
- Japan — Proven giant-killers; the team every group-stage opponent gets wrong by underestimating
- Sweden — Isak and Gyökeres could carry them; Potter needs to solve a team that somehow couldn't qualify comfortably
- Tunisia — Longest shot to advance, but shown before they can beat anyone on the day
The Netherlands will likely advance. But Japan have made a habit of making that sentence look foolish — and they'll have the same opportunity to do it again in Group F.
