"An Argentine can get fired up in two minutes." Sports journalist Tato Aguilera said it almost as a warning. Right now, though, Buenos Aires is eerily calm for a country that stopped dead in December 2022 when millions poured onto highways and overpasses to celebrate a World Cup win.
Less than two weeks out from the 2026 tournament kicking off in North America, the mood in Argentina is something the country rarely experiences around a World Cup: perspective. They already won. The 36-year wait is over. The Messi question — will he ever lift the trophy? — got its answer in Qatar. Whatever happens this time is a bonus.
For Felipe Mujica, a 39-year-old architect in Buenos Aires who usually spends matches yelling, swearing, and being generally unbearable to sit next to, that's a genuine relief. "We were waiting for 30 years to get another World Cup and after winning it the expectations are lower," he said. "We have a different kind of calm."
What the bookies think — and why that matters
That calm might not last long once the whistle blows, but it reflects something real about Argentina's standing heading in. Bookmakers have them as the fifth favorite. Goldman Sachs ran a model that factored in a "winner's slump" — the statistically documented tendency of defending champions to underperform the next time around — and it dragged Argentina's odds down further.
They'd need to do something only Italy (1934, 1938) and Brazil (1958, 1962) have ever done: win back-to-back World Cups. Coach Lionel Scaloni acknowledged the scale of it without flinching. "The truth is that it's very difficult, but well, not impossible, right?"
Right. Not impossible. But the gap between "not impossible" and "likely" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
Messi at 38, in his sixth and final tournament
The emotional center of all this is Lionel Messi, who turns up to his sixth World Cup at 38 years old. Everyone in Argentina knows it's the last one. Nobody wants to say it out loud.
"We want to continue that illusion that Messi is immortal," Aguilera said, "that Messi will keep playing until he's 55 years old, something that won't happen."
That denial is part of what's keeping the mood softer than usual. In 2022, the Muchachos anthem blared everywhere, the country was convinced it was Messi's last shot, and the pressure was suffocating in the best possible way. This time the billboards are up, the ads are running — one features retired basketball star Manu Ginobili reminding people that Athens 2004 looked lost before it didn't — but the fever pitch isn't there yet.
Sociologist Diego Murzi, who studies Argentine football culture, put it plainly: "That World Cup was very intense, and I doubt it will be repeated."
He's probably right. But Argentina relaxed and dangerous is still Argentina. Fifth-favorite odds on a squad with Messi, defending a title, in his farewell tournament, with a nation that reignites in two minutes flat? There are worse bets on the board.
