Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction

Free-scoring PSG against a leaky Toulouse defence

Across their last 20 matches in all competitions, PSG have won 12, drawn four and lost four, scoring 48 and conceding 24. That includes some big wins, but also a couple of surprise slips, including a home league defeat to Monaco and a cup loss to Lens.

Toulouse: 20 completed matches; Paris Saint Germain: 20 completed matches.

Toulouse

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

30% 6 / 20

Loss

45% 9 / 20

Scored

28

Conceded

38

Difference

-10

Paris Saint Germain

20 matches

Win

60% 12 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

48

Conceded

24

Difference

+24

Toulouse's equivalent run reads five wins, six draws and nine losses, with 28 scored and 38 conceded. That's a side drawing a lot of games and leaking goals too often to climb away from the lower half.

PSG's attack has been firing more often than not, while Toulouse's defensive record makes goals against them a live possibility.

Comparative Team Statistics: Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain

History strongly favours PSG

Looking back through recent meetings between these two, PSG have won the vast majority, including the most recent league clash in April 2026, which they won 3-1. Toulouse's wins in this fixture have been rare, with their last coming back in 2024 and before that 2016.

It's a long and one-sided record, though it stretches back years and doesn't tell us much about either side's current form.

A big gap in the table

PSG sit top of Ligue 1 with 20 points from nine games, built on six wins and just one defeat. Toulouse are down in 11th with 10 points from eight, having drawn as often as they've won.

That's a clear gap in quality of results so far this season, though league position alone won't settle a single match.

Players to keep an eye on

Ferran Torres has four goals in his last five appearances for PSG, with Marquinhos chipping in three over the same stretch. Fabián Ruiz has also been creating chances from midfield.

Toulouse:

Best scorers:

C. Tengstedt - 3

T. Jørgensen - 2

Best assist providers:

C. Cásseres - 4

Penalty cards:

N. Schmidt x 2

Paris Saint Germain:

Best scorers:

Ferran Torres - 4

Marquinhos - 3

Best assist providers:

Fabián Ruiz - 2

For Toulouse, Tengstedt has three goals in three matches and Cásseres has set up four goals in five, so there's some threat going forward even if results haven't followed. Schmidt has picked up two yellow cards in four games, which is worth watching from a discipline standpoint.

How this one might unfold

Put the table, the recent form and the head-to-head record together and the picture is fairly consistent: PSG arrive as the much stronger side with a settled attacking threat, while Toulouse have struggled for results and conceded freely.

That doesn't guarantee a one-sided game. Toulouse have shown they can score too, and PSG have had the odd off day in recent weeks, including a couple of unexpected defeats.