Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction

Form away from this competition looks different

Look across each side's last 20 matches in all competitions and the picture shifts. Tosu have won nine and lost seven, scoring 33 and conceding 22, which is a reasonably productive run overall.

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1

Sagan Tosu to win

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Draw

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Avispa Fukuoka to win

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Sagan Tosu: 20 completed matches; Avispa Fukuoka: 20 completed matches.

Sagan Tosu

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

30

Conceded

22

Difference

+8

Avispa Fukuoka

20 matches

Win

30% 6 / 20

Draw

45% 9 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

24

Conceded

24

Difference

0

Fukuoka's wider form is steadier rather than spectacular: six wins, nine draws and five defeats, with goals for and against level at 24 apiece. They draw a lot, which doesn't always point to a side dominating a cup group the way their position here suggests.

Tosu's general form is actually healthier than their cup group position implies, so this fixture isn't simply a case of the form team visiting the stragglers.

Comparative Team Statistics: Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka

History doesn't offer a clear lean

These two have met 14 times stretching back to 2016, mostly in J1 League fixtures rather than this competition. Results have swung both ways over the years, including a run of draws and goalless stalemates in several recent seasons.

Their last meeting, in September 2024, finished 0-0 in Tosu's favour as hosts, after Fukuoka had won 2-0 at home the previous meeting that year. There's no real pattern to lean on, and it's over a year since they last played.

The group table so far

Six games into this cup section, Fukuoka have picked up 13 points from four wins, a draw and a single loss, conceding just six goals along the way.

Tosu have managed only one win in the same six matches, picking up four points and shipping 15 goals. That's a notable gap within this specific group, separate from how either side has fared in their regular league campaigns.

Fukuoka's cup form has clearly been sturdier than Tosu's, even if their overall season numbers elsewhere tell a different story.

What we know about personnel

The only individual data available concerns Fukuoka. K. Konno has scored twice in three appearances, suggesting a sharp focal point in this competition, while T. Kamijima has picked up just one yellow card in the same span.

Avispa Fukuoka:

Best scorers:

K. Konno - 2

Penalty cards:

T. Kamijima x 1

There's nothing on file here about Tosu's personnel, so we can't make any claims either way about their squad for this one.