Dumbarton vs Keith Prediction

How both teams have been playing

Dumbarton's last 20 matches, spread across League Two and cup competitions, show seven wins, one draw and twelve defeats, with 29 goals scored and 50 conceded. That's a rough overall return, though a closer look shows four wins in their last five outings before a defeat at Stranraer crept in.

Dumbarton: 20 completed matches; Keith: 20 completed matches.

Dumbarton

20 matches

Win

35% 7 / 20

Draw

10% 2 / 20

Loss

55% 11 / 20

Scored

28

Conceded

46

Difference

-18

Keith

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

40

Conceded

38

Difference

+2

Keith's sample of 20 games across the Highland League and cup football reads nine wins, four draws and seven losses, with 36 scored and 35 against. They had a wobble in September, losing three on the bounce by some heavy scorelines, before steadying with a win over Stonehaven.

Neither side's recent numbers suggest genuine consistency heading into this tie.

A cup tie that's less one-sided than the divisions suggest

On paper Dumbarton, as a League Two side, would expect to have the edge over Highland League opposition. But their own form against lower-level sides in cup competitions has been shaky: narrow wins over Banks O' Dee and Kilmarnock II by a single goal, and a draw with Celtic II's development side.

Keith have shown they can trouble teams when they're playing well, scoring freely in some matches, but their defensive record has been inconsistent too, with some heavy losses mixed into the same run. That unpredictability on both sides makes this harder to call than the gap between the two leagues might imply.