Bulgaria host Estonia in the UEFA Nations League. Both sides come into this off a mixed bag of recent fixtures, mostly played away from major competition football.
The bookmakers have Bulgaria as strong favourites at home, but the form data behind that price is a bit patchy. Worth having a proper look before deciding what to make of it.
Analysis updated .
Compare bookmakers
Two very different recent runs
Bulgaria's last six matches have swung from one extreme to another. A 10-2 win over Solomon Islands sits alongside a 4-0 defeat to Greece, and there's also a 0-1 loss to Montenegro at home mixed in. Two wins, two draws, two losses, with 15 goals for and 11 against, tells you there's been little consistency.
What could your bet return?
Potential returns include your stake. Odds may change.
Bulgaria: 7 completed matches; Estonia: 7 completed matches.
Bulgaria
- Win
- 28.6% 2 / 7
- Draw
- 28.6% 2 / 7
- Loss
- 42.8% 3 / 7
- Scored
- 16
- Conceded
- 13
- Difference
- +3
Estonia
- Win
- 42.9% 3 / 7
- Draw
- 42.9% 3 / 7
- Loss
- 14.2% 1 / 7
- Scored
- 8
- Conceded
- 6
- Difference
- +2
| League | Home | Away | Date | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Nations League | Bulgaria | Luxembourg | 26.09.2026 | 1-2 |
| Friendlies | Moldova | Bulgaria | 05.06.2026 | 2-2 |
| Friendlies | Bulgaria | Montenegro | 01.06.2026 | 0-1 |
| FIFA Series | Indonesia | Bulgaria | 30.03.2026 | 0-1 |
| FIFA Series | Solomon Islands | Bulgaria | 27.03.2026 | 2-10 |
| Friendlies | Greece | Bulgaria | 10.06.2025 | 4-0 |
| Friendlies | Bulgaria | Cyprus | 06.06.2025 | 2-2 |
| League | Home | Away | Date | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Nations League | Iceland | Estonia | 26.09.2026 | 1-1 |
| Baltic Cup | Estonia | Lithuania | 09.06.2026 | 1-0 |
| Baltic Cup | Estonia | Faroe Islands | 06.06.2026 | 1-0 |
| FIFA Series | Rwanda | Estonia | 30.03.2026 | 2-0 |
| FIFA Series | Kenya | Estonia | 27.03.2026 | 1-1 |
| Friendlies | Cyprus | Estonia | 18.11.2025 | 2-4 |
| Friendlies | Estonia | Andorra | 09.09.2025 | 0-0 |
Estonia's sample looks tidier on the surface. Three wins, two draws and just one loss from their six, with a much tighter 7-5 goal difference. Wins over Lithuania, Faroe Islands and Cyprus came alongside a solid point against Andorra, though the only defeat came away to Rwanda.
Estonia's recent results look steadier, even if neither side has faced Nations League-calibre opposition lately.
Comparative Team Statistics: Bulgaria vs Estonia
A card worth watching
Bulgaria's F. Nürnberger has picked up three yellow cards in his last seven appearances. That's not a huge sample, but it does suggest he's someone referees have needed to speak to more than once recently.
Reading the mismatch between price and form
The market makes Bulgaria clear favourites here, but their recent matches have included some very lopsided scorelines against opposition of varying strength. That kind of volatility makes it harder to trust the home price at face value.
Estonia, by contrast, have quietly put together a decent run without playing anyone especially strong either. Neither team's recent sample gives a clean read on how they'll cope with proper Nations League opposition.
Match odds and squad lists
Squad and player details
| Name | Country | Age | Position | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Naumov | Bulgaria | 28 | Goalkeeper | 186 | n/a |
| I. Turitsov | Bulgaria | 27 | Defender | 170 | n/a |
| S. Ivanov | Bulgaria | 27 | Attacker | 177 | 70 |
| K. Dimitrov | Bulgaria | 29 | Defender | 189 | n/a |
| M. Minchev | Bulgaria | 25 | Attacker | 176 | 70 |
| D. Velkovski | Bulgaria | 31 | Defender | 185 | 68 |
| A. Chandarov | Bulgaria | 27 | Midfielder | n/a | n/a |
| Z. Dimitrov | Bulgaria | 28 | Midfielder | 180 | 71 |
| G. Rusev | Bulgaria | 28 | Midfielder | 177 | 73 |
| D. Mitov | Bulgaria | 29 | Goalkeeper | 188 | 76 |
| A. Hristov | Bulgaria | 27 | Defender | 192 cm | 80 kg |
| S. Velkov | Bulgaria | 29 | Defender | 192 | 85 |
| A. Kraev | Bulgaria | 27 | Midfielder | 194 | 82 |
| I. Gruev | Bulgaria | 26 | Midfielder | 185 | 72 |
| A. Chernev | Bulgaria | 24 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| L. Petkov | Bulgaria | 25 | Attacker | 183 | 76 |
| M. Petkov | Bulgaria | 23 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| D. Sheytanov | Bulgaria | 27 | Goalkeeper | 189 | n/a |
| Y. Stoyanov | Bulgaria | 25 | Midfielder | 180 | n/a |
| E. Tsenov | Bulgaria | 24 | Midfielder | 191 | n/a |
| Name | Country | Age | Position | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Anier | Estonia | 35 | Attacker | 183 | 85 |
| R. Sappinen | Estonia | 30 | Attacker | 177 | 73 |
| M. Igonen | Estonia | 30 | Goalkeeper | 186 | 78 |
| J. Tamm | Estonia | 34 | Defender | 192 | 97 |
| K. Mets | Estonia | 33 | Defender | 191 | 79 |
| M. Kuusk | Estonia | 30 | Defender | 181 | 76 |
| M. Käit | Estonia | 28 | Midfielder | 187 | 74 |
| F. Liivak | Estonia | 30 | Midfielder | 182 | 75 |
| M. Paskotši | Estonia | 23 | Defender | 188 | 84 |
| M. Ainsalu | Estonia | 30 | Midfielder | 189 | 86 |
| M. Poom | Estonia | 27 | Midfielder | 186 | 72 |
| M. Männilaan | Estonia | 25 | Attacker | 189 | n/a |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | Estonia | 25 | Defender | 187 | n/a |
| T. Tammik | Estonia | 24 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| M. Miller | Estonia | 29 | Midfielder | 178 | 78 |
| V. Sinyavskiy | Estonia | 29 | Defender | 180 | 72 |
| R. Peetson | Estonia | 31 | Defender | 185 | 76 |
| A. Tamm | Estonia | 25 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| J. Saliste | Estonia | 31 | Defender | 174 | 68 |
| K. Vallner | Estonia | 28 | Goalkeeper | n/a | n/a |
Neither team's recent sample gives a strong enough signal for this level of match. Bulgaria have shown they can win big and lose big, and Estonia's steady form has come against markedly different opposition.
With the evidence this mixed, we'd rather sit this one out than force a view on a short-priced favourite whose recent games swing so wildly.
Match result odds
Who will win?
