Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar Prediction & Betting Tips

Recent form: two very different pictures

Adelaide's last 20 matches, spanning A-League games, Australia Cup, AFC Champions League ties and some friendlies, show nine wins, seven draws and only four defeats, with 38 scored against 24 conceded. That's a healthy return, even accounting for the fact a chunk of that sample is friendly and cup fixtures rather than pure league form.

Adelaide United: 20 completed matches; Brisbane Roar: 20 completed matches.

Adelaide United

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

38

Conceded

24

Difference

+14

Brisbane Roar

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

50% 10 / 20

Scored

33

Conceded

34

Difference

-1

Brisbane's equivalent stretch is rougher: five wins, five draws and ten losses, with goals conceded (34) outstripping goals scored (33). Some of those defeats came in friendlies against lower-tier opposition, like the 0-5 loss to Ipswich, so it's not a pure reflection of their A-League level, but the pattern of struggling for results is clear even in the competitive matches mixed in.

Adelaide's numbers read better across the board, though both samples include weakened-team friendlies that dilute how much weight to put on the raw win-loss count.

Comparative Team Statistics: Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar

History leans towards Adelaide

Looking back across the last 20 meetings between these two, Adelaide have won ten, Brisbane five, with five draws. That's a decent lean towards the home side in this fixture, even if the sample stretches back to 2019.

The most recent two meetings actually flipped the usual pattern: Brisbane won away in Adelaide back in December, then Adelaide won away in Brisbane in January. So while the long-run head-to-head favours Adelaide, the very latest meetings have gone the away team's way both times.

Recent meetings have rewarded whoever travelled, which is worth bearing in mind alongside the longer-term H2H edge for Adelaide.

Key men and fitness doubts

Adelaide's L. Jovanović has been their main source of goals, with 11 in 24 appearances, and Y. Dukuly has chipped in seven assists, so the creative and finishing responsibility looks fairly concentrated for the home side.

Adelaide United:

Best scorers:

L. Jovanović - 11

Best assist providers:

Y. Dukuly - 7

J. Yull - 5

E. Alagich - 4

Penalty cards:

L. Jovanović x 1 x 3

P. Madanha x 1

D. Pierias x 1

Injury list:

J. Kwaaitaal

Brisbane Roar:

Penalty cards:

D. Valkanis x 1 x 5

C. Long x 1 x 4

N. Maieroni x 8

Injury list:

H. Bility

On the fitness front, Brisbane have H. Bility listed as a questionable injury concern, and Adelaide have J. Kwaaitaal in a similar category. Neither is confirmed out this far from kickoff, but they're worth keeping an eye on as the match approaches.

How this might play out

Adelaide's goal difference across their recent sample (+14) is considerably better than Brisbane's (-1), which points to a home side that's been more efficient at both ends of the pitch.

Brisbane's away record in that same stretch has been patchy, but their H2H away win in December shows they're capable of causing an upset on the road against this exact opponent. Goals have featured in most of these recent meetings too, so a tight, open game wouldn't be a surprise.