Group D at the 2026 World Cup doesn't have a runaway favourite. The United States carry home-nation pressure, Turkey are walking back into the tournament after a 20-year absence, Paraguay just beat Argentina and Brazil in qualifying, and Australia don't lose in World Cups without a fight. On paper, this group eats itself.
The hosts are under the microscope
Mauricio Pochettino inherits the most scrutinised job in American soccer history. Coaching a home World Cup is never just about tactics — it's about managing expectation, noise, and a nation that's still figuring out how seriously it takes this sport. Pochettino has the CV, but the squad debates haven't gone away, and the US need more than crowd noise to progress.
Christian Pulisic remains the focal point. When he's sharp, the US look like a team. When he's not, they look like a collection of decent players. That's been the problem for years, and 2026 won't change the dynamic — it'll just expose it sooner if it goes wrong.
Pochettino, incidentally, is from Murphy, Santa Fe — an Argentinian town named after Wexford man John James Murphy, who made his fortune there as a sheep farmer. Football's full of these odd threads.
Paraguay are the group's most dangerous side on current form
Winning at home in South American qualifying is one thing. Beating Argentina and Brazil at home — back-to-back — is something else. Gustavo Alfaro has turned Paraguay into a side that's organised, physical, and genuinely believes it can hurt anyone. They haven't been at the World Cup since the 2010 quarter-finals, but they aren't arriving as tourists.
Miguel Almiron leads the attack. At 30, this is almost certainly his last shot at a major tournament, and that tends to focus a player. Paraguay at decent odds to reach the knockout stage isn't a bad place to look — they've earned that consideration.
Turkey, meanwhile, bring two of the most exciting 21-year-olds in European football. Real Madrid's Arda Guler and Juventus' Kenan Yildiz have the talent to win games by themselves, and Vincenzo Montella has built a squad around them without making it feel like a two-man show. Missing five consecutive World Cups creates either rust or hunger. This Turkey group looks like the latter.
Australia won't be anyone's easy three points
Six straight World Cups. Last 16 in 2022, where they beat Tunisia and Denmark before Argentina ended it. The Socceroos have built a competitive culture that doesn't get enough credit — they turn up, they work, and they make matches difficult for teams that expect otherwise.
Midfielder Aiden O'Neill adds an interesting footnote — the 27-year-old, now with New York City in MLS, was courted by both the FAI and IFA before choosing Australia, the country whose football identity he clearly felt matched his own.
Group D won't produce a comfortable 90 minutes for anyone involved. The US need it to go smoothly. Paraguay don't care if it doesn't. Turkey have the talent to take it apart. And Australia will quietly make life hard for all three.
