"Nagelsmann is starting to believe his own hype a bit too much." That's the verdict from Marcus Fjortoft, host of the German Fussball podcast, and it cuts right to the heart of why Germany head into this World Cup with more uncertainty than their squad depth deserves.
On paper, the pieces are there. Jamal Musiala. Florian Wirtz. A Bayern Munich spine. A semi-final run at a home Euros in 2024, narrowly beaten by eventual champions Spain. Nagelsmann arrived in 2023 when German football was flatlining — no style, no optimism — and he genuinely reinvigorated it. For a while.
Then came Nations League defeats to Portugal and France. A World Cup qualifying campaign that Fjortoft describes as "unconvincing." And a string of press conference missteps that have started to erode the goodwill he'd built. He publicly listed the reasons Denis Undav wouldn't start — then apologised for it weeks later. He gave a "tell-all" interview announcing he'd already decided his XI. These aren't the actions of a coach who's reading the room.
The Klopp problem
The bigger issue isn't tactical. It's the name hanging over every press conference: Jurgen Klopp. Still officially employed in a global soccer strategy role at Red Bull. Still beloved. Still available, in the romantic sense that German football fans think about these things.
"Of course Klopp will have the itch," says Fjortoft. "And when your nation comes calling... there is this inevitability, this romance in the idea of Klopp taking over Germany."
Nagelsmann signed an extension through Euro 2028, so contractually it's complicated. But contracts don't stop fan bases from imagining alternatives — especially when results wobble. A quarter-final exit here and the conversation gets very loud very fast. Germany's odds to win the tournament reflect exactly that kind of ceiling: dangerous enough to go deep, not trusted enough to go all the way.
The squad has real weapons
Set aside the politics and the talent is genuinely exciting. Wirtz's £115m move to Liverpool hasn't caught fire yet, but Fjortoft isn't worried — "Don't worry about Florian Wirtz" — pointing to his performance against Switzerland in the last international break as evidence the adaptation period is ending. Musiala, somehow only 23, is competing in his fourth international tournament.
Lennart Karl — 18 years old, already Bayern's breakthrough player this season, youngest Champions League scorer, youngest Bundesliga scorer — brings a genuine X factor. Aleksandar Pavlovic gives them steel in midfield. Dortmund's Felix Nmecha and winger Maximilian Beier (17 goal involvements in his second full Bundesliga season) add more depth.
Manuel Neuer, 40 years old and two years older than his head coach, has come out of international retirement to reclaim the gloves. A 2014 World Cup winner back for one more run. The symbolism is hard to ignore.
- Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz as the creative engine
- Lennart Karl (18) as a wildcard attacking threat
- Aleksandar Pavlovic anchoring midfield
- Antonio Rudiger and Malick Thiaw providing defensive experience
- Denis Undav — Bundesliga's second top scorer behind Harry Kane — in a battle with Kai Havertz for the striker role
That last point is its own problem. Nagelsmann keeps rotating Undav and Havertz rather than committing to one, a decision Fjortoft finds genuinely disruptive. Havertz as a number nine is a philosophical choice — a connector rather than a finisher — and it's one that doesn't always sit well with a squad that has a proven goalscorer ready to start.
Fjortoft's realistic ceiling is a quarter-final. Given everything — the squad quality, the coaching noise, the Klopp shadow — that feels about right. "He's dependent on results," Fjortoft says of Nagelsmann. That's the most honest summary of where this Germany campaign stands.
