"Three weeks ago, I thought he was dead." That quote, from a global football source with first-hand knowledge of the discussions, tells you everything about how fast the FIFA presidential race has flipped. Gianni Infantino, written off by senior football figures after the collapse of his 20% World Cup stake sale, now looks set to survive — and his opponents know it.
Multiple sources told Reuters that Infantino can count on enough votes to win re-election in Rabat on March 18, 2027. The same source who thought his position was untenable a month ago has changed their reading entirely: "What I didn't realise was the extent to which, after 10 years in power, the relationships he has built are almost unbreakable."
No candidate, no coalition
The math is brutal for UEFA and its allies. FIFA's Congress gives every one of its 211 member associations a single vote. That means toppling Infantino isn't a European project — it's a cross-continental one. And right now, there is no candidate capable of building that coalition.
Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the PSG president regarded as one of the few figures with the profile and network to mount a serious challenge, has ruled himself out. CONCACAF's Victor Montagliani won't stand without believing he can win. No heavyweight from Africa or Asia has stepped forward, and the nomination deadline is November 18 — just over two months away.
France summed up the opposition's dilemma perfectly on Thursday. The French Football Federation unanimously withdrew its support for Infantino, with president Philippe Diallo declaring that "the trust placed in the FIFA president has been broken." Then he was asked who should replace him. He had no answer. "Our mission now is to make sure that a programme and a candidate emerge," he said. That's not a plan. That's a problem.
Where Infantino's support actually lives
While European associations make noise, the blocs that actually deliver votes are staying put. In Oceania, New Caledonia's federation president Steeve Laigle was unambiguous: "We will support him until the end." Africa tells a similar story — most CAF federation presidents remain satisfied, and several believe continued support means continued development funding.
CONMEBOL, South America's confederation, is still in Infantino's corner. Morocco, one of Africa's most influential members, is publicly backing him. There are even whispers — denied by FIFA — that the Royal Moroccan federation's president was promised the 2030 World Cup final in exchange for maintaining African solidarity. FIFA denied it. Morocco didn't comment.
The arithmetic is what it is. Infantino's opponents now face a scenario where challenging him and losing would strengthen his position further. "It is even more of a risk for UEFA to go to a vote and not win," the same source said. That's not a political observation — it's a warning about consequences.
So the focus is shifting. Officials are now examining whether to push for structural reform instead — redistributing powers from the presidency, tightening oversight on commercial decisions, giving the secretary general more authority. Diallo confirmed this is part of the conversation inside UEFA. It's a significant retreat from where things stood a month ago, when Infantino's opponents genuinely believed the investment scandal could end his tenure.
"The direction of travel has changed," the source said. It has. The question now isn't whether Infantino survives — it's whether his critics can at least clip his wings before 2027.
