"Between 1970 and 1994, it was 24 years. Between 2002 and 2026, that's 24 years." In Brazil, that kind of numerology isn't background noise — it's fuel. And right now, the Seleção are running on a full tank of belief, regardless of what the last four years actually looked like.
Because the reality of Brazil's World Cup qualifying campaign was grim. Six defeats in 18 games. Three different managers. Their first-ever home loss in qualifying — to Argentina, who then beat them in Buenos Aires too. They only squeaked through because the tournament expanded to 48 teams. Without that change, Brazil would have faced a playoff. That's not spin. That's what happened.
None of it has dented the confidence of a nation. That's partly cultural, partly historical, and partly because — well — they've won this thing five times and no one else is close.
Ancelotti is giving Brazil its identity back
Carlo Ancelotti became Brazil's first solo foreign manager in 112 years when he took over, and Brazilian coach Thomas Farines makes a point that cuts through the noise: "He's being more Brazilian than certain Brazilian coaches." The recent Seleção sides played like a cautious European club team. Ancelotti has opened things up, handed Vinicius Jr. the creative freedom he rarely had under predecessors, and let the squad breathe.
The Vinicius question is real, though. Nine international goals in 49 caps (0.18 per game) against 128 in 376 Madrid appearances (0.34 per game) — the gap is significant. Farines thinks the issue is predictability: "He always does the same trick. He needs to go back to that Vinicius we saw at Flamengo when he did crazy things at 16, 17." If Ancelotti has genuinely unlocked that version, Brazil's odds become a lot more interesting. If Vinicius again saves his best for the Bernabéu, the quarterfinal ceiling stays.
And then there's Neymar. His return to the squad was, apparently, "a national celebration" — despite three years of injuries, a return to Santos, and another fitness setback in the build-up. Farines draws an honest comparison to Memo Ochoa: experienced, calming, a symbol rather than a weapon. The emotional value is real. Whether playing him at the expense of Endrick or teenager Rayan makes footballing sense is a different question entirely.
The absences that actually hurt
Brazil's most damaging losses aren't Neymar's uncertain fitness — they're Estevão and Rodrygo. The Chelsea teenager was, by Farines' reckoning, Brazil's biggest miss for this tournament. "They are the creative players. They are the players that can create a difference in a matter of seconds." Losing both of the players who think fastest in the final third blunts the attack in a way no amount of Neymar nostalgia fixes.
Brazil open the group stage against Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland — a path that should, on paper, deliver three wins. But knockout football at a World Cup is where the last 24 years keep showing up. Four quarter-final exits since 2002. The 7-1 in Belo Horizonte. A 2024 Copa América that ended in the last eight.
History does offer comfort: before winning the 1994 World Cup, Brazil needed a last-game victory over Uruguay just to qualify. Before 2002, Farines recalls, "we were in big trouble" until Luiz Felipe Scolari was handed the reins and manufactured something from chaos. The parallel with Ancelotti is obvious.
Whether it holds is the question that makes this tournament genuinely worth watching for Brazil. "I'm slightly more skeptical," admits Farines — and that skepticism, from someone inside the Brazilian football bubble, probably tells you more than the celebrations did.
