"It is very difficult to repeat it." That's Javier Zanetti — former Argentina captain, not some pessimist — summing up what awaits his country in 2026. He believes in this squad. He's just honest about what history keeps doing to teams in their position.
No nation has retained the World Cup on a different continent since Brazil in 1962. Every defending champion this century has either embarrassed themselves in the group stage or come close enough to it to count. Germany finished bottom of their group in 2018. Spain lost 5-1 to the Netherlands in their opening game in 2014. Italy couldn't get out of a group containing New Zealand in 2010. France, 2002: didn't win a game, lost to Senegal, went home early.
France in Qatar came close to bucking that trend by reaching the final. But they were the exception to a pattern that has swallowed every other champion for over two decades.
The ageing squad problem Argentina can't ignore
The root cause is usually the same: winners keep their winning squad. Coaches trust what worked. Players want one more shot. And slowly, without anyone noticing, the squad that lifted the trophy becomes a slightly slower, slightly older version of itself — carrying the same names but not the same legs.
It happened to Italy with a 36-year-old Cannavaro returning from injury, his career in European club football already over. It happened to Germany when Jogi Löw kept faith in Khedira and Özil, both of whom were shells of their 2014 selves. Upon Italy's exit in 2010, one Italian journalist wrote: "Cannavaro is a former player and almost all the others are cooked."
Argentina are walking into the same dynamic. Ten of the starting eleven from the 2022 World Cup final are returning. Nicolás Otamendi is 37, heading to River Plate after the tournament. Nicolás Tagliafico is 33. Alexis Mac Allister — one of the younger ones — is no longer the lung-busting midfielder who tore apart France's defence in that final. Liverpool fans know exactly what kind of player he's become: metronomic, controlled, but not that.
And then there is Messi. Now 38, four seasons into MLS, still scoring, still topping South American qualifying, still the man Scaloni builds everything around. Zanetti insists his presence is only positive: "Having him on the pitch always gives you a certain sense of calm because you know that you have a player who can make the difference at any one moment." That's probably true. It's also a sentence that says everything about how reliant Argentina remain on a single ageing genius.
The reasons to believe — and how far they go
There is young talent in this squad. Nico Paz has been one of the stories of the Italian season, driving Como into the Champions League. Giuliano Simeone brings pace and directness. Valentín Barco, 21, has emerged as a genuine option at left back. Zanetti points to the mix: "There is experience, but there are a lot of young players too."
Argentina won the 2024 Copa America. They topped South American qualifying by a significant margin. The squad has continuity and a coach in Lionel Scaloni who understands exactly how to use Messi — not as a workhorse, but as the player who decides games in the moments that matter.
But winning the World Cup means five knockout games in 15 days. For Messi, that means doing it at 38 against the best defensive teams in the world, in a tournament hosted across North America where the schedules and travel aren't always kind.
- No team has retained the World Cup on a different continent since Brazil in 1962
- Four of the last five defending champions exited in the group stage or round of 16
- 10 of Argentina's 2022 World Cup final starters are back — including Otamendi (37) and Tagliafico (33)
- Messi is in his fourth MLS season and remains Argentina's top scorer in qualifying
Argentina's title odds reflect the genuine belief — and genuine risk. A squad this experienced, with this much collective tournament know-how, isn't going to fall apart in the group stage. But history doesn't care about reputation. It just keeps adding to the list.
