"Once the tournament starts, if your team starts performing well, all of a sudden, irrespective of politics, money, and everything else, people will jump on planes — they just do." That quote, from tourism researcher Alan Fyall, is both the economic opportunity and the problem facing the 2026 World Cup in one sentence.
The upside is real. Argentina vs France in Qatar 2022 saw flight bookings almost double when the final was set, with most tickets purchased just two days before the match. England and Germany fans are historically among the most mobile in world football — organized, numerous, and willing to travel without even holding a match ticket just to be in the atmosphere. Between 12,000 and 15,000 England supporters are expected at each of their group games across Dallas, Boston and New Jersey. Germany's fanbase travels in serious numbers when the team is going deep, and for the knockout rounds that effect compounds fast.
Europe has a clear advantage at the ticket window
Here's what makes an England-Germany final the dream scenario for US tourism economics: both countries are in the Visa Waiver Program. English and German fans can apply for ESTA authorization online for roughly $40 and know within 72 hours whether they're cleared to travel. That's the kind of frictionless pathway that actually converts a last-minute impulse into a booked flight.
Compare that to the situation facing Argentine, Brazilian, and Moroccan supporters — who must attend an in-person embassy interview costing $185, wait up to 30 days for the appointment, then another three to ten business days for processing. With 38 days until the final, that window is effectively closed for fans from those countries who haven't already started the process.
Seven of the top ten FIFA-ranked nations are VWP members: Spain, France, England, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. The draw is set up to reward European advancement in ways that directly benefit US economic projections. FIFA president Gianni Infantino has called the tournament the equivalent of "108 Super Bowls" in economic impact — a figure that relies heavily on late-booking international arrivals, and those arrivals are mostly coming from Europe.
Politics are doing what no visa fee could
The harder question is whether the welcome mat is actually out. The current US administration has made international travel measurably more complicated — and in some cases actively hostile. An Iraqi player was detained for nearly seven hours at O'Hare. A team photographer was denied entry entirely. Iranian squad members only received visas at the last minute, with some staff still waiting. A Somali referee was turned away at Miami despite holding a valid visa.
Fans from more than a quarter of World Cup participating nations are facing travel bans, tighter restrictions, or high visa rejection rates, according to BBC World Service analysis. Roughly 65% of Americans oppose ICE operating inside stadiums during the tournament, per a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has declined to rule out arrests near matches.
When asked about the referee incident at a press conference, Infantino told reporters it was "good as well to just chill, relax." That response is not going to reassure anyone debating whether to book a transatlantic flight.
Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality analytics at CoStar, put it plainly: "The rhetoric from the administration around letting people in has just not been super helpful." His own friends and family in Germany aren't planning to come — put off by ticket prices and the perceived hassle of entry. That's exactly the demographic the US economy needs showing up in July.
Tourism Economics senior economist Tariq Khan framed the whole bet on the "irrationality of the global soccer fan" — the hope that emotional investment overrides geopolitical hesitation. It might. It has before. But in 2022, Qatar wasn't turning referees away at the airport.
