Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Prediction

Flamengo's away form dwarfs Vasco's home record

Across their last 20 matches away from home, in all competitions, Flamengo have won 14, drawn 5 and lost just once, scoring 43 and conceding only 15. That's a heavy sample that includes league, Libertadores and some friendly fixtures, but the pattern of control is clear.

Vasco DA Gama: 20 completed matches; Flamengo: 20 completed matches.

Vasco DA Gama

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

30% 6 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

27

Conceded

17

Difference

+10

Flamengo

20 matches

Win

70% 14 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

5% 1 / 20

Scored

43

Conceded

15

Difference

+28

Vasco's record at home over the same length of sample is far less settled: 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses from 20, with 27 scored and 17 conceded. They've had some big results both ways, including a 5-0 win and a 4-1 defeat, so consistency isn't really their calling card right now.

Flamengo's travelling form has been about as strong as it gets, while Vasco's home displays swing from one extreme to the other.

Comparative Team Statistics: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo

Head-to-head has been tighter than the tables suggest

Looking back over recent meetings between these two, the picture isn't as one-sided as the current league positions imply. The last several encounters have produced a 2-2 draw, a narrow 1-0 Flamengo win, a 1-1 draw and a scoreless draw, with Vasco often making things awkward.

There was a heavier result further back, a 6-1 Flamengo win away at Vasco in 2024, so this fixture can occasionally get out of hand. But most of the recent history points to tight, low-scoring affairs rather than routine wins.

Recent derby meetings have tended to be close, even when the league table says otherwise.

A big gap in the table

Flamengo sit top of Serie A with 60 points from 28 games, built on 18 wins against just 4 losses. Vasco are down in 16th with 31 points from 27 games, having lost 12 times already this season.

The goal difference tells a similar story: Flamengo have scored 55 and conceded 23, while Vasco have conceded 41 against 34 scored. It's a wide gap on paper between where these two clubs currently stand.

Pedro leads the way, a few names to watch on availability

Pedro is Flamengo's main goal threat with 16 in 28 appearances, and Samuel Lino has chipped in with 9 goals and 7 assists. Jorginho, Carrascal and Arrascaeta have all been involved in creating chances too, so there's more than one route to goal.

Vasco DA Gama:

Penalty cards:

Cauan Barros x 1 x 5

A. Gómez x 9

Thiago Mendes x 8

Injury list:

Mateus Carvalho

Flamengo:

Best scorers:

Pedro - 16

Samuel Lino - 9

Best assist providers:

Samuel Lino - 7

J. Carrascal - 7

Pedro - 5

Penalty cards:

J. Carrascal x 2 x 2

E. Pulgar x 1 x 6

Jorginho x 1 x 4

Injury list:

Daniel Thuram

Ryan Roberto

On the fitness side, Flamengo have Daniel Thuram and Ryan Roberto both listed as questionable, while Vasco have a knee concern for Mateus Carvalho. None of that confirms who will actually play, but it's worth keeping an eye on team news closer to kickoff.