Everton vs Newcastle Prediction

Recent form snapshot

Looking at each side's last 20 matches across all competitions, Newcastle have won 8, drawn 5 and lost 7, scoring 31 and conceding 31. Everton's record over a similar span is 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, with 30 scored but only 23 conceded.

Everton: 20 completed matches; Newcastle: 20 completed matches.

Everton

20 matches

Win

35% 7 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

30% 6 / 20

Scored

30

Conceded

23

Difference

+7

Newcastle

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

31

Conceded

31

Difference

0

Both samples stretch back through pre-season friendlies as well as league and cup games, so this isn't a pure reflection of current league form. Still, Everton's tighter defensive numbers stand out against a Newcastle side who've been involved in more high-scoring games.

Everton have conceded noticeably less than Newcastle over a broadly similar run of matches.

Comparative Team Statistics: Everton vs Newcastle

History leans Everton's way lately

Everton have had the better of this fixture recently. Across the last five competitive meetings, they've won three and drawn two, including a 3-2 win at Newcastle back in February 2026 and a 4-1 home win in November 2025.

Newcastle's only success against Everton in the last couple of years came in a pre-season friendly in August 2026, which doesn't carry the same weight as a competitive result. Their last competitive win over Everton in this run of meetings dates back to December 2023.

Newcastle haven't beaten Everton in a competitive fixture for a good while now.

Faces who've made an impact in this fixture

T. Barry has been the standout attacker in the last two meetings between these sides, scoring three goals and adding an assist. H. Barnes has chipped in with two goals for Newcastle over the same two games, with A. Dedić setting up two of them.

Everton:

Best scorers:

T. Barry - 3

Best assist providers:

T. Barry - 1

Newcastle:

Best scorers:

H. Barnes - 2

Best assist providers:

A. Dedić - 2

Penalty cards:

J. Ramsey x 2

On the discipline side, Newcastle's J. Ramsey picked up two yellow cards without a red across those same two matches, which is worth keeping in mind given how these fixtures have been fairly feisty.

How this one could play out

This is a League Cup tie roughly a month out from when this form was checked, so today's shape isn't a guarantee of how either side lines up on the night. That said, Everton's tighter defensive record and their recent dominance in this specific fixture both point in their favour.

Newcastle's attacking output across their last 20 matches shows they can score against most opponents, so this isn't a one-way street. Given the head-to-head trend and Everton's home advantage, there's a reasonable case for a tight, competitive game rather than a routine one.