Swansea vs Blackburn Prediction

Two different recent trends

Over their last 20 matches in all competitions, Swansea's overall numbers look solid: ten wins, four draws and six losses. But their last two league outings have been rough, a 1-0 home loss to West Ham followed by a 5-0 thumping away at QPR. Before that dip they'd actually won three on the spin.

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1

Swansea to win

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Odds1.7

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£34.00

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Draw

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Odds3.6

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£72.00

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2

Blackburn to win

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Odds5

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Swansea: 20 completed matches; Blackburn: 20 completed matches.

Swansea

20 matches

Win

50% 10 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

30% 6 / 20

Scored

25

Conceded

23

Difference

+2

Blackburn

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

28

Conceded

24

Difference

+4

Blackburn's 20-game sample reads eight wins, five draws and seven losses, roughly similar shape to Swansea's. The difference is timing. Blackburn have won three of their last five league games, including away wins at Bristol City and Cardiff, so they're heading into this one with more recent momentum than their league position suggests.

Blackburn arrive with better recent momentum than Swansea, even though the table says otherwise.

Comparative Team Statistics: Swansea vs Blackburn

Home advantage has mattered lately

The last four meetings between these two have all gone the home side's way. Swansea won 3-1 and 3-0 at home in their two most recent home fixtures against Blackburn, while Blackburn won 2-1 and 1-0 on their own patch. Go further back and the history is mixed across different competitions and eras, so it's the recent pattern that stands out most.

That pattern suggests home comfort has counted for something in this fixture recently, which is worth bearing in mind given where this one is being played.

Table position versus current form

Swansea are top of the league on 23 points from 11 games, with a defensive record of just eight goals conceded all season. Blackburn sit tenth on 15 points, with a more even goals for and against split of 17 and 16.

On the season-long numbers, Swansea are clearly the stronger side. The tension here is that their last two results don't look anything like a team with the division's best defence.

Swansea's season numbers are strong, but their very recent defensive form doesn't match that record.

Goals spread fairly evenly

Neither side has a standout individual scorer dominating their output. Blackburn's O. Afolayan has three goals and two assists in eight matches, with A. Guðjohnsen also on three goals from seven games. Swansea's main man is A. Idah, also with three goals in eight appearances.

Swansea:

Best scorers:

A. Idah - 3

Best assist providers:

Eom Ji-Sung - 2

Penalty cards:

F. Lissah x 4

Blackburn:

Best scorers:

O. Afolayan - 3

A. Guðjohnsen - 3

Best assist providers:

O. Afolayan - 2

Penalty cards:

Tom Atcheson x 1 x 2

Sam Morsy x 4

On discipline, Blackburn's Sam Morsy and Swansea's F. Lissah have both picked up four yellow cards in eight matches each, so this could be a fixture where the referee's whistle gets a fair bit of use.