Spain vs Croatia Prediction & Betting Tips

Spain's home run against Croatia's shaky away form

Spain haven't lost any of their last twelve matches at home, winning nine and drawing three, while shipping just three goals in that stretch. That's a defensive record most sides would envy, and it's come against a mix of World Cup and friendly opposition.

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1

Spain to win

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Draw

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2

Croatia to win

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Spain: 13 completed matches; Croatia: 9 completed matches.

Spain

13 matches

Win

76.9% 10 / 13

Draw

23.1% 3 / 13

Loss

-7.105427357601E-15% 0 / 13

Scored

24

Conceded

5

Difference

+19

Croatia

9 matches

Win

55.6% 5 / 9

Draw

0% 0 / 9

Loss

44.4% 4 / 9

Scored

13

Conceded

15

Difference

-2

Croatia's away form tells a different story. Four wins from eight, but four defeats too, and fourteen goals conceded shows they've been leaky on the road, including losses to Panama and England.

Spain's home solidity contrasts sharply with Croatia's defensive frailty away from home.

Comparative Team Statistics: Spain vs Croatia

A history that swings both ways

The last meeting between these two went Spain's way, a 3-0 win at Euro 2024, and the one before that finished goalless. Go back further though, and Croatia have had their moments, including a 3-2 win in Zagreb and a 2-1 victory at Euro 2016.

So while recent meetings lean towards Spain, this fixture has thrown up its share of shocks in the past.

Recent meetings favour Spain, but Croatia have proven capable of causing upsets against them before.

Names worth watching

Mikel Oyarzabal has been busy creating chances for Spain, with two assists in his last six appearances. Robin Le Normand's disciplinary record stands out too, with three yellows and a red in just four matches recently.

Spain:

Best scorers:

Álex Baena - 1

Mikel Oyarzabal - 1

Croatia:

Best scorers:

Marco Pasalic - 1

That kind of card count doesn't guarantee anything about this specific match, but it's a pattern worth keeping an eye on if Spain's defence comes under any pressure.

How many goals might we see?

Spain's home matches haven't always been goal-fests despite the attacking numbers. Some finished 4-0 or 3-0, others were tighter, including a couple of 0-0 draws. Croatia's recent games have swung between high-scoring and cagey too, with a 4-2 defeat to England sitting alongside a 0-0 draw with Spain back in 2023.

Put together, this looks more like a game where Spain control things rather than one guaranteed to be a shootout.