Pafos vs Riga Prediction, 22 Oct 2026

Pafos host Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Riga arrive full of confidence after a strong run of results, while Pafos have had a much choppier few months.

Riga have barely lost all season, though most of those results came in Latvia's top flight rather than against European opposition. Pafos, despite a shakier run, have already beaten useful sides like Salzburg and Dinamo Tirana along the way.

Analysis updated 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC.

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Form lines tell different stories

Riga's recent record reads well: 13 wins, 6 draws and just a single loss from their last 20 matches, with 45 goals scored and 22 conceded. Most of that sample comes from Virsliga fixtures, where they've barely dropped points, plus some competitive Conference League nights against the likes of Gyori ETO and KI Klaksvik.

What could your bet return?

Pafos to win

Your stake£

Odds1.52

Potential return£30.40Bet Now

Draw

Your stake£

Odds4.1

Potential return£82.00Bet Now

Riga to win

Your stake£

Odds5.75

Potential return£115.00Bet Now

Potential returns include your stake. Odds may change.

Pafos: 20 completed matches; Riga: 20 completed matches.

Pafos

20 matches

Win: 45% 9 / 20
Draw: 25% 5 / 20
Loss: 30% 6 / 20

Scored: 29
Conceded: 22
Difference: +7

Riga

20 matches

Win: 65% 13 / 20
Draw: 30% 6 / 20
Loss: 5% 1 / 20

Scored: 45
Conceded: 22
Difference: +23

Pafos
League	Home	Away	Date	Score
UEFA Europa Conference League	Atalanta	Pafos	15.10.2026	3-1
1. Division	Anorthosis	Pafos	11.10.2026	1-3
1. Division	Pafos	AEL	18.09.2026	0-2
1. Division	AEK Larnaca	Pafos	13.09.2026	0-1
1. Division	Pafos	Olympiakos	07.09.2026	0-0
Super Cup	Omonia Nicosia	Pafos	03.09.2026	0-1
1. Division	Karmiotissa	Pafos	30.08.2026	0-3
UEFA Europa Conference League	Pafos	Dinamo Tirana	27.08.2026	4-2
UEFA Europa Conference League	Dinamo Tirana	Pafos	20.08.2026	1-1
UEFA Europa League	Pafos	Red Bull Salzburg	13.08.2026	3-3

Riga
League	Home	Away	Date	Score
UEFA Europa Conference League	Riga	Kairat Almaty	15.10.2026	1-1
Virsliga	Tukums	Riga	10.10.2026	0-2
Friendlies Clubs	Aris	Riga	03.10.2026	1-2
Virsliga	FS Jelgava	Riga	19.09.2026	0-1
Virsliga	Super Nova	Riga	15.09.2026	0-1
Virsliga	Riga	Auda	11.09.2026	2-2
Virsliga	Riga	BFC Daugavpils	07.09.2026	1-1
Cup	Rīgas FS	Riga	03.09.2026	2-3
Virsliga	FK Liepaja	Riga	31.08.2026	3-2
UEFA Europa Conference League	Riga	KI Klaksvik	27.08.2026	2-1

Pafos haven't had it so smooth. In their last 20 they've won nine, drawn five and lost six, with some eye-catching results mixed in - a 4-2 win over Dinamo Tirana and a 1-0 away win at Salzburg, but also home defeats to AEL and Karmiotissa. It's a club capable of big performances but not always consistent ones.

Riga's unbeaten run looks strong on paper, but it hasn't been tested against sides of Pafos's calibre as often.

Comparative Team Statistics: Pafos vs Riga

Pafos vs Riga statistics: team strength, attack, defence and head-to-head comparison.

Riga's disciplinary record

The only player detail we have concerns Riga's card counts. Aouani and Ankrah have each picked up three yellow cards in their last six appearances, and Salazar has already seen red once in that span. That's a fair few bookings for one squad in a short period.

Riga:

Penalty cards:

A. Salazar red card

x 1

R. Aouani

x 3

A. Ankrah

x 3

Worth keeping an eye on Riga's discipline if the game gets feisty.

Pafos vs Riga: UEFA Europa Conference League match preview with team badges and kick-off details.

Could goals be on the cards?

Riga's matches have rarely been quiet. They've scored 45 times in 20 games but also conceded 22, suggesting goals at both ends are common when they play. Pafos's own numbers, 29 scored and 22 conceded in their last 20, point in a similar direction, even allowing for the mix of competitions involved.

Neither team's sample suggests a side that shuts games down easily. That pattern matters more than any single result when sizing up how open this one might be.

Match odds and squad lists

MATCH RESULT (1x2)

W1: 1.52

X: 4.1

W2: 5.75

Handicap

Pafos

Riga

Handicap (-3.5): 8.10

Handicap (-1): 11.50

Handicap (-3): 9.00

Handicap (-0.75): 7.40

Handicap (-2.75): 6.00

Handicap (-0.25): 4.80

Handicap (-2.5): 4.65

Handicap (0): 4.30

Handicap (-2.25): 4.25

Handicap (0.25): 2.93

Handicap (-2): 3.84

Handicap (0.75): 2.08

Handicap (-1.75): 2.88

Handicap (1): 1.84

Handicap (-1.5): 2.41

Handicap (1.25): 1.59

Handicap (-1.25): 2.13

Handicap (1.5): 1.45

Handicap (-1): 1.89

Handicap (1.75): 1.32

Handicap (-0.75): 1.62

Handicap (2): 1.18

Handicap (-0.25): 1.31

Handicap (2.25): 1.15

Handicap (0): 1.15

Handicap (2.5): 1.12

Handicap (0.25): 1.11

Handicap (2.75): 1.06

Handicap (0.75): 1.03

Handicap (3.5): 1.02

Handicap (1): 1.01

Total

Over

Under

Over (0.5): 1.02

Under (0.5): 12.50

Over (1): 1.01

Under (1): 9.00

Over (1.25): 1.09

Under (1.25): 5.35

Over (1.5): 1.18

Under (1.5): 3.84

Over (1.75): 1.24

Under (1.75): 3.34

Over (2): 1.31

Under (2): 2.97

Over (2.25): 1.51

Under (2.25): 2.32

Over (2.5): 1.74

Under (2.5): 2.02

Over (2.75): 1.89

Under (2.75): 1.77

Over (3): 2.20

Under (3): 1.55

Over (3.25): 2.49

Under (3.25): 1.42

Over (3.5): 2.78

Under (3.5): 1.34

Over (3.75): 3.34

Under (3.75): 1.24

Over (4): 4.50

Under (4): 1.13

Over (4.25): 4.90

Under (4.25): 1.11

Over (4.5): 5.25

Under (4.5): 1.09

Over (4.75): 6.75

Under (4.75): 1.04

Over (5): 8.20

Under (5): 1.02

Over (5.5): 8.70

Under (5.5): 1.01

More odds

Squad and player details

Pafos
Name	Country	Age	Position	Height	Weight
Bruno Langa	Mozambique	28	Defender	178	70
M. Bassouamina	Congo	28	Attacker	172	71
M. Ilia	Cyprus	30	Attacker	186	n/a
Bruno Felipe	Brazil	32	Attacker	179	75
V. Dragomir	Romania	27	Midfielder	178	75
David Goldar	Spain	32	Defender	180	77
K. Pileas	Cyprus	27	Defender	180	n/a
João Correia	Cape Verde	30	Defender	175	68
T. Papadoudis	Greece	23	Goalkeeper	194	n/a
N. Michael	Cyprus	32	Goalkeeper	190	85
Pedrão	Brazil	22	Defender	186	88
I. Šunjić	Croatia	30	Midfielder	184	75
D. Luckassen	Netherlands	31	Defender	188	78
L. Dimata	Belgium	29	Attacker	185	81
M. Tankovic	Sweden	31	Attacker	179	74
M. Oršić	Croatia	33	Attacker	179	69
K. Sema	Sweden	33	Midfielder	180	69
Domingos Quina	Portugal	26	Midfielder	179	72

Riga
Name	Country	Age	Position	Height	Weight
O. Galo	Costa Rica	26	Midfielder	180	73
A. Černomordijs	Latvia	30	Defender	190	78
K. Pirić	Bosnia and Herzegovina	32	Goalkeeper	192	89
A. Taiwo	Nigeria	28	Attacker	185 cm	n/a
K. Zviedris	Latvia	29	Goalkeeper	n/a	n/a
R. Jurkovskis	Latvia	29	Defender	187	73
F. Orols	Latvia	26	Goalkeeper	n/a	n/a
M. Toņiševs	Latvia	26	Defender	184	n/a
M. Badamosi	Gambia	27	Attacker	196	85
Samuel Pedro	Portugal	25	Attacker	n/a	n/a
Iago Siqueira Augusto	Brazil	26	Midfielder	n/a	n/a
Paulo	Brazil	24	Defender	188 cm	84 kg
Reginaldo Ramires	Brazil	25	Attacker	n/a	n/a
S. Oulad M'Hand	Netherlands	23	Midfielder	177 cm	70 kg
M. Diop	Senegal	23	Midfielder	n/a	n/a
A. Salazar	Colombia	23	Defender	182	75
B. Musah	Ghana	27	Defender	n/a	n/a
C. Saco	Mali	24	Midfielder	198	92
A. Ankrah	Ghana	25	Midfielder	n/a	n/a
R. Aouani	Tunisia	22	Midfielder	179 cm	70 kg
Abner	Brazil	22	Defender	189	75
Caio	Brazil	25	Attacker	n/a	n/a
K. Wassom	Cameroon	22	Defender	n/a	n/a
M. Kazainis	Latvia	19	Goalkeeper	n/a	n/a

Putting the two sets of numbers together, this looks more likely to be an open game than a tight one. Riga's attacking output away from home and Pafos's occasional defensive wobbles both point the same way.

Over 2.5 goals looks the more sensible angle here, rather than trying to call the winning margin in a match where Pafos's superior quality faces a Riga side used to scoring and being scored against.