Norway vs Wales Prediction

Two very different form lines

Norway's longer sample reads seven wins, three draws and six losses from sixteen matches, with twenty-six goals scored and twenty-four conceded, so their games tend to have goals in them. Narrow it down to just their recent Nations League matches though and it's been shakier: defeats to Portugal both home and away, plus that loss away to Wales, with only a home win over Denmark to show for it.

What could your bet return?

1

Norway to win

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Odds1.21

Potential return

£24.20

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X

Draw

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Odds6.14

Potential return

£122.80

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2

Wales to win

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Odds10.1

Potential return

£202.00

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Potential returns include your stake. Odds may change.

Norway: 16 completed matches; Wales: 9 completed matches.

Norway

16 matches

Win

43.8% 7 / 16

Draw

18.8% 3 / 16

Loss

37.5% 6 / 16

Scored

26

Conceded

24

Difference

+2

Wales

9 matches

Win

11.1% 1 / 9

Draw

22.2% 2 / 9

Loss

66.7% 6 / 9

Scored

5

Conceded

13

Difference

-8

Wales' picture is bleaker across the board. One win in nine matches, five goals scored in total and thirteen conceded. Even their win over Norway sits inside a run where they've otherwise lost six of their last nine.

Norway's overall numbers are far healthier than Wales', even though their own recent Nations League form hasn't been convincing either.

Comparative Team Statistics: Norway vs Wales

The reverse fixture went Wales' way

The only meeting we've got on record here is from early October, when Wales hosted Norway and won 2-1. That's the most recent data point between these two sides, and it came just weeks before this return match.

It doesn't tell us much about how things will go at a different ground, but it's a reminder that Norway haven't had the better of Wales lately, whatever the respective form lines suggest.

It's one result, not a pattern, but it keeps Wales relevant in this tie rather than making them pure makeweights.

Haaland's goals, a card worry to watch

Erling Haaland scored twice in his most recent outing, and Martin Ødegaard set up two goals in the same match, so there's real firepower and creativity available to Norway when it clicks. Antonio Nusa also chipped in with an assist in that game.

Norway:

Best scorers:

E. Haaland - 2

Best assist providers:

M. Ødegaard - 2

A. Nusa - 1

Penalty cards:

D. Møller Wolfe x 1 x 1

There's a small flag too: Daniel Møller Wolfe picked up a yellow and a red card in his last appearance. That's just one match's worth of data, not proof he'll be missing here, but it's worth keeping an eye on the team sheet closer to kickoff.

How this one might play out

Norway go into this as strong favourites, and with Haaland and Ødegaard both in recent goal involvement they have the quality to cause problems for a Wales side that's really struggled to score lately, just five goals in nine matches is a stark number.

But Wales have already shown they can hurt Norway, winning the first meeting 2-1, so this isn't purely one-way traffic on paper. Add in that Norway have lost three of their last four Nations League matches, and this one looks tighter than the market price implies.