Millwall vs Derby Prediction

Current Form

Looking across their last 20 matches in all competitions, Millwall have won seven, drawn five and lost eight, scoring 24 and conceding 25. It's a solid if unspectacular record, with some big home wins mixed in among tighter results.

Millwall: 20 completed matches; Derby: 20 completed matches.

Millwall

20 matches

Win

35% 7 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

40% 8 / 20

Scored

24

Conceded

25

Difference

-1

Derby

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

15% 3 / 20

Loss

60% 12 / 20

Scored

23

Conceded

32

Difference

-9

Derby's record over a similar sample is tougher reading: five wins, three draws and twelve losses, with 23 scored but 32 conceded. That goal difference points to a side that's been giving up chances regularly, home and away.

Derby's defensive numbers stand out as the bigger concern heading into this one.

Comparative Team Statistics: Millwall vs Derby

Head To Head

These two have met plenty of times down the years, and the recent meetings have stayed close. Millwall won the last one 1-0 back in March, Derby held them to a 1-1 draw in December, and Millwall won 1-0 the time before that.

Across the last four meetings Millwall haven't lost, with two wins and two draws, though none of the results so far have been one-sided.

Recent history slightly favours Millwall, but these have mostly been tight, low-scoring affairs.

League Standings

In the league table itself, Millwall sit 11th with 11 points from eight games, having scored and conceded 15 apiece. Derby are down in 22nd place with just five points from the same number of matches, scoring only seven and conceding 14.

That's a significant gap this early in the season, and it lines up with the shape of their recent form.

Players To Watch

Millwall's L. Dykes has four goals in his last eight appearances, the standout scoring record on either side. Jenson Metcalfe has chipped in with assists too, but he's also picked up three yellows and a red in that same spell, so his discipline is worth watching.

Millwall:

Best scorers:

L. Dykes - 4

Best assist providers:

C. Neghli - 2

Jenson Metcalfe - 2

Penalty cards:

Jenson Metcalfe x 1 x 3

Derby:

Best assist providers:

B. Clark - 2

For Derby, B. Clark leads their assist charts with two in eight matches, which hints at a side short on creative output going forward.

Derby's lack of a standout creator fits with their wider struggles in front of goal.

How This Could Play Out

Millwall's home matches recently have included some big scorelines, wins like 4-0, 3-0 and 5-1 among them, while Derby have shipped goals in bunches away from home too. If both sides play true to that pattern, goals at one end look more likely than a tight, cagey game.

Derby's away form has included some heavy defeats, and against a Millwall side scoring freely at home, that defensive fragility could be tested again.