Italy vs Türkiye Prediction & Betting Tips

Form check

Italy's sample here is small, just three matches, but it splits neatly: they won away at Greece and Luxembourg by a single goal each, then lost 0-2 at home to Belgium in their most recent Nations League outing. Two wins from three isn't bad, but that home defeat stands out.

Italy: 3 completed matches; Türkiye: 8 completed matches.

Italy

3 matches

Win

66.7% 2 / 3

Draw

0% 0 / 3

Loss

33.3% 1 / 3

Scored

2

Conceded

2

Difference

0

Türkiye

8 matches

Win

50% 4 / 8

Draw

0% 0 / 8

Loss

50% 4 / 8

Scored

11

Conceded

9

Difference

+2

Türkiye's form is busier, eight matches spread across the World Cup, friendlies and Nations League, with four wins and four losses. They've scored freely at times, netting 11 goals in that run, but they've also shipped nine, including defeats to France, Paraguay, Australia and Mexico.

Italy's only home match in this stretch ended in defeat, and Türkiye's most recent outing was also a home loss, so recent home form hasn't been a strength for either side.

Comparative Team Statistics: Italy vs Türkiye

Head-to-head

These two have met three times in the data we have, and Italy have won two of them, including a 3-0 win at Euro 2020 and a 3-2 friendly win in Türkiye. The other meeting, a 2024 friendly in Italy, finished 0-0.

That record leans towards Italy, but a Euro fixture, a friendly and a low-key draw don't tell us much about how a competitive Nations League clash will play out now.

Players to watch

Federico Dimarco leads Italy's assist charts with three in six matches, suggesting he's been a key creative outlet from the flank.

Italy:

Penalty cards:

D. Maldini x 1

Türkiye:

Penalty cards:

U. Çakır x 1

For Türkiye, both Okay Aydın (three assists in just two matches) and Kerem Aktürkoğlu (two in eight) have had a hand in the goals. Defensively, Abdülkerim Bardakcı has picked up three yellow cards in seven matches, a disciplinary note worth flagging without reading too much into it.

How this one could go

With both teams unconvincing in their most recent outings, and Türkiye's overall record built on fairly extreme results in each direction, this doesn't look like a fixture with an obvious script. Italy have shown they can be breached at home, and Türkiye have shown they can be breached anywhere.

The head-to-head history offers a slight lean to Italy, but it comes from a mix of a tournament game, a friendly, and a drawn friendly, so it's not a reliable guide to how this Nations League meeting unfolds.