Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction & Betting Tips

Recent form: Saints steadier, Derry all over the place

Looking at each side's last 20 matches across all competitions, St Pat's have been the more reliable outfit: 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses, with 29 scored and only 18 conceded.

Derry City: 20 completed matches; St Patrick's Athl.: 20 completed matches.

Derry City

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

40% 8 / 20

Scored

36

Conceded

31

Difference

+5

St Patrick's Athl.

20 matches

Win

50% 10 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

29

Conceded

18

Difference

+11

Derry's equivalent run reads 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, with 36 for and 31 against. Some of that comes from European nights in the Conference League and Europa League, so it's a mixed bag rather than a pure league gauge.

Derry's defence has looked more porous than St Pat's across this stretch, whatever the competition.

Comparative Team Statistics: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.

Head-to-head: four draws on the bounce

These two have met plenty of times down the years, and Derry actually hold a decent historical record in this fixture. But the recent trend is different: the last four meetings between them, going back to August 2025, have all finished level.

Two of those were goalless, which fits with St Pat's tight recent defensive numbers and suggests this is rarely an easy game for either side to break down.

Recent history points to a tight, low-scoring affair rather than a one-sided result.

League table tells a clear story

St Patrick's Athletic sit top of the Premier Division with 59 points from 32 games, built on 17 wins, 8 draws and just 7 losses. Derry City are down in fourth on 41 points, with a much shakier 9 wins, 14 draws and 9 losses.

Goals back that up too. St Pat's have shipped only 25 in the league while scoring 52, whereas Derry's numbers - 45 for, 42 against - point to a leakier defence.

That gap in points and goal difference makes St Pat's the form side on paper, even on the road.

How this one could play out

On the table, St Pat's are the clear form side and hold the better defensive record by some distance. That would normally point to a strong away showing.

But the head-to-head pattern complicates things. Four straight draws suggest Derry find a way to stay in these games even when they're not flying domestically, and their recent European involvement in the Conference League and Europa League shows there's still some quality in that squad.

Key player statistics: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.

Derry City:

Best scorers:

M. Duffy - 10

J. Clarke - 6

Penalty cards:

A. O'Reilly x 1 x 9

J. Clarke x 1 x 5

J. McClean x 1 x 4

St Patrick's Athl.:

Best scorers:

R. Edmondson - 10

A. Keena - 10

K. Leavy - 6

Penalty cards:

S. Hoare x 1 x 6

J. Lennon x 7