Derby vs Stoke City Prediction & Betting Tips

Recent form: a wider look

Derby's results line up with the table: one win, two draws and five defeats in their last eight league games. That run includes a 3-0 home defeat to Swansea, a narrow home loss to West Brom, and a 1-1 draw away at Burnley most recently.

Derby: 20 completed matches; Stoke City: 20 completed matches.

Derby

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

15% 3 / 20

Loss

60% 12 / 20

Scored

23

Conceded

32

Difference

-9

Stoke City

20 matches

Win

30% 6 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

45% 9 / 20

Scored

22

Conceded

29

Difference

-7

The sample we have for Stoke actually comes from the back end of last season rather than this one, running from January through to a defeat at Bristol City in early May. It shows a tougher patch, three wins, five draws and 12 losses in 20 games, but it isn't a picture of where Stoke are right now. Their current seventh-place finish so far suggests they've turned things around since then.

Judge Stoke on this season's table position rather than on that older sample of results.

Comparative Team Statistics: Derby vs Stoke City

Head-to-head: no clear trend

These two have met regularly down the years, and the recent meetings have gone both ways. Derby won 2-0 last time out in April, but before that Stoke won 3-1, the two drew 0-0, and Stoke won 2-1 the time before that.

There's no consistent pattern in the recent head-to-head, so it isn't offering a strong lean either way.

Where they sit in the table

Stoke are handily placed in seventh after eight games, with four wins, a draw and three defeats bringing them 13 points. Their goal difference is healthy too, having scored 13 and conceded 12.

Derby's numbers tell a very different story. One win, two draws and five losses from the same number of games have left them down in 22nd on just five points, with only seven scored and 14 conceded.

That gap in the table, 17 places and eight points, makes Stoke the team with rather more to be pleased about so far this season.

Key contributors

Stoke's E. Galbraith has been their main source of goals, with three in his last eight appearances, while E. Bocat has chipped in a couple of assists over the same run. Galbraith has also picked up four yellow cards in that spell, so he's one to watch for bookings too.

Derby:

Best assist providers:

B. Clark - 2

Stoke City:

Best scorers:

E. Galbraith - 3

Best assist providers:

E. Bocat - 2

Penalty cards:

S. Ingelsson x 1 x 1

E. Galbraith x 4

For Derby, B. Clark has been the main creative outlet, with two assists in his last eight games, though the team's overall goal return has been low regardless of who's setting them up.

How this could play out

Derby have shipped goals for fun at home this season, letting in three against Swansea and struggling to keep West Brom out too. If Stoke bring anything like their current-season level, there should be chances for them at the other end.

Stoke's away form in the data we have is from last season though, and it wasn't pretty on the road either. So it's not guaranteed they'll cash in on Derby's defensive issues, even with the gap between the two sides in the table.

Goals look a reasonable expectation given both sides' defensive record, even if the identity of the winner is harder to nail down.