Derby vs Bolton Prediction

How Both Sides Have Been Playing

Derby's Championship form has been tough reading. In their last eight league games they've managed just one win, drawn twice and lost five, with goals proving hard to come by. That one win came away at Portsmouth; everything else has gone against them, home or away.

Derby: 20 completed matches; Bolton: 20 completed matches.

Derby

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

15% 3 / 20

Loss

60% 12 / 20

Scored

23

Conceded

32

Difference

-9

Bolton

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

29

Conceded

28

Difference

+1

Bolton's record over the same span looks sturdier - three wins, a draw and four defeats - but the pattern is more interesting than the numbers alone. After a rough middle stretch without a win, they've strung together back-to-back victories over Cardiff and Norwich. That run ended on 20 September, though, so there's been a gap before this one kicks off.

Bolton head into this with more recent momentum than Derby, even if the points gap between them isn't huge.

Comparative Team Statistics: Derby vs Bolton

A Long-Running Fixture

These two have met plenty of times down the years, mostly in League One and the Championship, stretching back to 2012. It's been fairly even overall, with wins shared on both sides and a handful of draws mixed in.

The most recent meeting, back in 2024 in League One, saw Derby edge it 1-0 at home. That was a different division and a different group of players for both clubs, so it doesn't tell us much about how this version of the fixture will go.

Where They Sit Right Now

Bolton currently sit 15th with 10 points from eight games, while Derby are down in 22nd on 5 points from the same number of matches. That's a five-point gap that lines up with Bolton's steadier week-to-week results.

Position alone doesn't tell the whole story, but it does fit with what we've seen in the recent form - Derby have struggled to find the net and to keep opponents out in equal measure.

Players Worth Watching

There's no confirmed injury news to report for either side, but a couple of individual stats stand out. Bolton's T. Gale is their top scorer this season with three goals in eight appearances, so he's the obvious one to watch going forward.

Derby:

Best assist providers:

B. Clark - 2

Bolton:

Best scorers:

T. Gale - 3

Penalty cards:

J. Sheehan x 1 x 1

At the other end, Derby's B. Clark leads the way for assists with two in eight games, suggesting he's their main creative outlet when they do get forward. Bolton's J. Sheehan has also picked up a yellow and a red card over that span, a disciplinary note worth keeping an eye on without reading too much into it.