Burnley vs Birmingham Prediction

Recent Form

Birmingham's last 20 matches across all competitions show 10 wins, 7 draws and just 3 losses, scoring 34 and conceding 23. Some of that sample comes from League Cup ties and pre-season friendlies rather than pure league form, but the pattern of winning more than losing is clear.

Burnley: 20 completed matches; Birmingham: 20 completed matches.

Burnley

20 matches

Win

5% 1 / 20

Draw

45% 9 / 20

Loss

50% 10 / 20

Scored

24

Conceded

39

Difference

-15

Birmingham

20 matches

Win

50% 10 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

15% 3 / 20

Scored

34

Conceded

23

Difference

+11

Burnley's equivalent run tells a different story. Just 1 win in 20 matches, with 9 draws and 10 losses, and they've shipped 39 goals while scoring only 24. That's a side finding it hard to turn even decent games into results.

Burnley's high draw count suggests they're often in games, but they need to start winning the ones they're level in.

Comparative Team Statistics: Burnley vs Birmingham

Head-to-Head

The two sides have met ten times in the records available, stretching back over a decade. Burnley won the most recent meeting 3-0 in December 2022, having drawn 1-1 away at Birmingham a couple of months earlier. Further back, the series has swung between both teams, including several tight draws in the early 2010s.

None of that really tells us much about the current sides, though, since those matches came with different squads and very different league pictures to the ones we're seeing now.

League Position

In the actual Championship table, Birmingham sit 4th with 20 points from 11 games, built on 5 wins, 5 draws and just 1 loss. Burnley are down in 22nd with 8 points from the same number of matches, having won only once themselves.

That's a gap of 12 points after just 11 league games, which lines up with the contrast we're seeing in recent form.

If this gap holds up, Birmingham go into the game as one of the division's in-form sides against one that's badly out of form.

Players to Watch

Birmingham's L. Millar has been heavily involved in attack, picking up 3 assists in just 4 matches on record, which hints at some sharpness in their build-up play. B. Osayi-Samuel has picked up 3 yellow cards in 8 games, worth noting given how physical this fixture could get.

Burnley:

Penalty cards:

J. Laurent x 1 x 2

Birmingham:

Best assist providers:

L. Millar - 3

Penalty cards:

B. Osayi-Samuel x 3

For Burnley, J. Laurent is the player with the most cards on record, 2 yellows in 7 matches, suggesting he's regularly involved in the tougher midfield battles.

How This Could Play Out

Put the league table and recent form together and Birmingham look like the side carrying real confidence into this one, sitting comfortably in the top half while scoring freely and conceding little. Burnley, by contrast, have been competitive without really winning, drawing plenty of matches but failing to turn that into points.

With the match still a month away from when this data was gathered, there's time for both teams' form to shift. But the underlying gap in quality looks wide enough that it would take a real swing from Burnley, or a dip from Birmingham, to change that picture much.