Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers Prediction

Contrasting recent runs

Looking across their last several matches in all competitions, Raith have picked up plenty of wins and only dropped points occasionally. Ayr's equivalent stretch has been rougher, with several defeats mixed in and only the odd win to show for it.

Ayr Utd: 20 completed matches; Raith Rovers: 20 completed matches.

Ayr Utd

20 matches

Win

55% 11 / 20

Draw

15% 3 / 20

Loss

30% 6 / 20

Scored

32

Conceded

21

Difference

+11

Raith Rovers

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

26

Conceded

13

Difference

+13

Worth noting this sample isn't purely league form, it mixes in cup and friendly games too, but the overall pattern still points to Raith being in better shape heading into this one.

Comparative Team Statistics: Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

Even overall, but Ayr's home record stands out

Across the recorded meetings between these two, it's basically split down the middle, with both sides winning nine apiece and a couple of draws thrown in. Raith's recent edge has mostly come when playing at their own ground or elsewhere, though.

When you isolate the games actually played at Ayr's ground, the picture flips. Ayr have won the vast majority of those meetings, even in seasons when Raith were clearly the better side overall.

Ayr's home record in this specific fixture is a lot stronger than their current league position suggests.

A big gap in the table right now

Raith sit second with 14 points from eight games, while Ayr are down in eighth with just eight points from the same number of matches. Goal difference tells a similar story, with Raith conceding far less than they've shot in and Ayr leaking goals at both ends.

It's still early in the campaign, so this isn't set in stone, but the current gap between the two is sizeable.

Form says one thing, history at this ground says another

On the balance of league form and table position, Raith look the side in better nick by some distance. Their away form recently has held up reasonably well too, with wins and a draw mixed into their travels.

But Ayr's home form this season has mostly been draws and losses, which doesn't inspire confidence either. Add in that long run of home wins against Raith specifically, and this looks like a fixture where the formbook and the history pull in different directions.

Key player statistics: Ayr Utd vs Raith Rovers

Ayr Utd:

Penalty cards:

J. Bonnar x 1