Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Betting Tips

Form guide: Nacional cruising, Pasto stuttering

Across their last 20 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have won 14, drawn one and lost five, scoring 40 goals and conceding just 18. That's a strong return by any measure, and it includes some big home wins mixed in with a couple of Copa Colombia results.

Atletico Nacional: 20 completed matches; Deportivo Pasto: 20 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional

20 matches

Win

70% 14 / 20

Draw

10% 2 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

41

Conceded

18

Difference

+23

Deportivo Pasto

20 matches

Win

25% 5 / 20

Draw

10% 2 / 20

Loss

65% 13 / 20

Scored

21

Conceded

34

Difference

-13

Pasto's last 20 have gone the other way: five wins, three draws and 12 losses, with 31 goals conceded against only 21 scored. There have been flickers of form recently, including back-to-back wins, but the overall shape of their run has been shaky.

Nacional's attack has been firing consistently, while Pasto's defence has leaked goals far too often for comfort.

Comparative Team Statistics: Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

Head-to-head: closer than the form suggests

The last three meetings have gone Nacional's way twice and produced a draw once. In March this year Nacional won 2-1 at Pasto's ground, they drew 2-2 there in October last year, and Nacional beat Pasto 3-0 at home back in April 2025.

Go further back and the fixture has swung both ways over the years, with plenty of one-goal margins and the odd draw thrown in. It's not a lopsided rivalry historically, even if recent meetings have tilted towards Nacional.

Even in games Nacional have dominated in form, this fixture has often stayed tight on the scoreline.

Where they sit in the table

One set of standings has Nacional top with 40 points from 19 games and Pasto third with 34 points from the same number of matches, which paints both as solid sides having decent seasons.

A separate, shorter table covering a more recent stretch tells a different story: Nacional sit fourth with 18 points from eight games, while Pasto are down in 15th with just eight points from ten. That suggests Pasto in particular have cooled off a lot lately, even if their overall season numbers still look respectable.

Depending on which snapshot you trust, Pasto's recent dip looks more serious than their season-long placing implies.

Goal threat and discipline

Alfredo Morelos leads the scoring charts with 14 goals in 30 matches for Nacional, with Rengifo and Sarmiento chipping in seven apiece and both also among the assist leaders. That's a fairly spread-out attack rather than one built around a single outlet.

Atletico Nacional:

Best scorers:

A. Morelos - 14

Best assist providers:

J. Rengifo - 7

A. Morelos - 6

A. Sarmiento - 6

Penalty cards:

A. Román x 1 x 7

A. Morelos x 9

E. Cardona x 9

Deportivo Pasto:

Penalty cards:

S. Jiménez x 2 x 8

A. Estupiñán x 2 x 6

N. Gil x 2 x 5

On the discipline side, Pasto have a few players who've picked up a lot of cards this season, including Garavito with 11 yellows in 24 games and Estupiñán with two reds in 19 appearances. Nothing here confirms who's out for this game, but it does flag Pasto as a side that's picked up its fair share of bookings.

Nacional's goals come from more than one source, which makes them harder to shut down by marking a single man.

How this one could play out

Put the numbers together and Nacional look like the side better equipped to control this game at home, given their recent scoring rate and the fact Pasto have conceded freely away from their own ground. Pasto have shown they can still nick results and draws even during a rough patch, though, and their head-to-head record here hasn't been one-way traffic.

If Nacional's front three click the way they have in their bigger home wins, this could get away from Pasto quickly. But Pasto's ability to grind out draws even against strong sides means a tighter, scrappier outcome is far from out of the question too.