Albania vs Finland Prediction

Recent form tells two different stories

Albania have won five of their last nine matches, scoring 13 and conceding eight along the way. Most of those wins have come against the softer sides in their Nations League group, though they've also lost a couple of recent friendlies.

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1

Albania to win

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Draw

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2

Finland to win

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Albania: 9 completed matches; Finland: 10 completed matches.

Albania

9 matches

Win

55.6% 5 / 9

Draw

0% 0 / 9

Loss

44.4% 4 / 9

Scored

13

Conceded

8

Difference

+5

Finland

10 matches

Win

40% 4 / 10

Draw

20% 2 / 10

Loss

40% 4 / 10

Scored

17

Conceded

10

Difference

+7

Finland's record over ten matches reads four wins, two draws and four losses, with 17 scored and ten conceded. That tally is skewed by a big win over a weak opponent, and their results against stronger teams have been shakier.

Neither side has been consistent, so recent form alone doesn't settle much.

Comparative Team Statistics: Albania vs Finland

They've already met this campaign

The only recorded meeting between these two is last month's Nations League clash, which Finland won 2-1 on their own patch. It's the sole head-to-head on file, so there's no long history to lean on, but it's fresh and it's in the same group.

Given how recent it is, Albania will have that result in mind heading into this one, especially with home advantage now on their side.

A narrow recent defeat gives Albania a clear incentive to respond at home.

Pohjanpalo leads Finland's scoring

Finland's goal involvement is dominated by a handful of names, with Jukka Pohjanpalo down for three goals and Walta for two from recent outings. Svanbäck and Källman have chipped in as well.

Finland:

Best scorers:

J. Pohjanpalo - 3

L. Walta - 2

A. Svanbäck - 1

Those numbers look to come largely from one big scoring game, likely the rout of a weaker opponent, which shows Finland can be ruthless when the opposition sits deep but doesn't tell us much about tougher away nights.

Finland's attack has teeth against weaker defences, less proven against stiffer ones.

Home ground against an inconsistent traveller

Albania are the clear favourites for this one, and the picture from recent matches supports that. Their Nations League form at least has been solid, built on wins over the group's weaker sides, and they get to play this one at home.

Finland's away form has been patchy, mixing a thumping win over a minor side with defeats to tougher opposition like Belarus and Germany. That inconsistency on the road is the main thing working against them here, even with Pohjanpalo in form.