The World Cup begins on Thursday 11 June under a searing afternoon sun at the Azteca, where Mexico face South Africa. Whatever your grievances with a 48-team format and the corporate machinery behind it, the first glimpse of that stadium on your screen will probably silence them — at least temporarily.
Mexico should get through. Beyond that, this group is genuinely open in a way most aren't. Czech Republic versus South Korea, in Guadalajara on the opening night, looks like the de facto second-place decider. South Africa are here to compete, not to be hammered, but their attack won't carry them into the last 32.
Mexico: the pressure of the hosts
This is El Tri's 18th World Cup finals appearance. The ceiling, realistically, is a quarter-final — something they haven't reached since 1986, the last time they hosted. At 66/1 to win the tournament, the market isn't expecting much more than that either.
Javier Aguirre, in his third stint as head coach, has ditched the possession-heavy approach that failed under Tata Martino and returned to something more chaotic and direct. It suits the personnel. It may not suit a home crowd demanding beauty.
Raul Jimenez is the man they need to deliver. Four World Cups. Barely a meaningful minute at any of them — a six-minute substitute appearance in 2014, two cameos in 2018, three substitute roles in Qatar. On home soil at 33, this is his last realistic shot. He has 120-plus caps and is closing in on 50 international goals. If Mexico are going deep, he has to be the one dragging them.
The player everyone else will be watching is 17-year-old Gilberto Mora from Tijuana. He already holds records that briefly belonged to Lamine Yamal and Pelé, including becoming the youngest player to win a senior international at 16 years and 265 days. Once he turns 18 he's heading to Europe — the scouts are already forming a queue. Aguirre isn't playing this down: "He's surely on the radar of several huge clubs around the world and it fills me with pride." That's a head coach practically advertising his own player, and Mora is good enough that nobody minds.
Czech Republic and South Korea: the real contest
Czech Republic arrived here through the play-offs in circumstances that looked, at various points, genuinely alarming. Tomas Soucek stripped of the captaincy after a row with fans. A 2-0 deficit against Ireland in the semi-final before a penalty gift and a shootout rescue. Then Denmark dominated the final — and they won on penalties again. Somehow, Miroslav Koubek's side have cultivated a shootout ruthlessness that papers over a lot of attacking deficiencies.
Patrick Schick carries the attack. Sixteen Bundesliga goals for a Leverkusen side that faded to sixth last season, averaging just under a goal every two caps internationally. At 30 he's at the right age. Ladislav Krejci — one of Wolves' few bright spots in a relegated side — provides the energy and was captain when Soucek was demoted. His stock should rise here. At 300/1 to win it, Czech Republic are valued appropriately, but making the knockout stage would be a genuine achievement for this group.
South Korea are 500/1 and stuck in a rut that's now well over two decades old. Fourth place as co-hosts in 2002 remains the high point. Since then: alternate between group exits and last-16 defeats. Son Heung-min turns 34 during the latter stages and is chasing records — his country's all-time top scorer, Asia's leading scorer at World Cups — but individual milestones mean nothing if they go out in the group again.
Hong Myung-bo, the 2002 captain now back as head coach, experimented with a back three in March. A 4-0 friendly loss to Ivory Coast and a 1-0 defeat to Austria killed that idea. He's reverting to a flat back four. Lee Kang-in at PSG needs a big tournament for this to work, and Jens Castrop — Dusseldorf-born, switched allegiance from Germany to South Korea last summer — is expected to fill a left-back role despite spending most of the season in midfield at Borussia Mönchengladbach.
South Africa: competitive, but limited
Hugo Broos, 74, has already managed expectations down to the floor. "We're going to do our best but I don't think anyone will blame us if we don't make it out of the group." When your own coach is saying that, 1000/1 looks about right.
Their strength is collective. Eight players from Mamelodi Sundowns, eight from Orlando Pirates — the two clubs who fought out the South African title this season. That familiarity could make them awkward opponents. Lyle Foster of Burnley is the only name British fans will recognise in the forward line, and he'll need support.
Goalkeeper Ronwen Williams is the captain and their most reliable performer. He saved four penalties from Cape Verde in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations quarter-finals. Getting to a shootout here seems ambitious, but if South Africa are to cause any kind of surprise, Williams staying clean — or near it — in the opening game against Mexico is where it starts.
Group A fixtures
- Thursday 11 June, 20:00 BST: Mexico vs South Africa — Mexico City
- Friday 12 June, 03:00 BST: South Korea vs Czech Republic — Guadalajara
- Thursday 18 June, 17:00 BST: Czech Republic vs South Africa — Atlanta
- Friday 19 June, 02:00 BST: Mexico vs South Korea — Guadalajara
- Thursday 25 June, 02:00 BST: Czech Republic vs Mexico — Mexico City
- Thursday 25 June, 02:00 BST: South Africa vs South Korea — Monterrey
Mexico top the group. Second place comes down to that opening night clash between South Korea and Czech Republic in Guadalajara — win that and you're in the driving seat. South Africa are disciplined enough not to be embarrassed, but three points from this group would be a shock.
