The United States have already won Group B, and their World Cup odds have gone from +5500 to +2800 since the tournament kicked off. That's not a fluke — Pochettino's side have genuinely looked like one of the better teams in the competition.
A 4-1 demolition of Paraguay, a controlled 2-0 win over Australia, and now a dead-rubber against an already-eliminated Türkiye side. The US didn't just advance — they advanced with something to spare, against opponents all ranked inside FIFA's top 50. That matters.
Pulisic, Balogun, and who's actually driving this team
Christian Pulisic has played 45 minutes. That's it. A calf injury in the first half against Paraguay cut short what was shaping up to be a dominant personal display, and his absence has quietly reshuffled the team's attacking identity.
Into that gap stepped Folarin Balogun. The Monaco striker scored twice against Paraguay — both finishes sharp, composed, the kind that make you think he'd been waiting for this stage. With Pulisic's minutes limited, Balogun is now the clear top scorer for the US, and at -500 with DraftKings to finish as the team's leading scorer, that price reflects how one-sided the picture has become. Gio Reyna at +800 and Pulisic at +1600 to +2000 are both dependent on form and fitness neither has yet established at this tournament.
The Türkiye game, largely irrelevant in terms of group standings, could hand Haji Wright a start — if he scores, he's suddenly in the conversation too.
How far can they actually go?
The honest answer: the last 16 looks very achievable, and the quarter-final — their best finish since 2002 — is within reach if the bracket holds up. But that 2002 benchmark required beating Mexico and Portugal. The 2026 version will demand something similar.
Home advantage is real. Los Angeles and Seattle have delivered exactly the kind of intense, vocal atmospheres that make opposition teams uncomfortable. That edge doesn't disappear in the knockout rounds.
What could derail them is the midfield holding up physically. Tyler Adams, when fit, is the kind of player who controls games rather than just plays in them. The schedule is punishing, and at a tournament with a new expanded format, depth and fitness management will matter more than usual.
- USA to beat Türkiye in the final group game: -115 (FanDuel)
- USA to reach but be eliminated in the last 16: +250 (BetMGM)
- Folarin Balogun to be USMNT top scorer: -500 (DraftKings)
The US haven't just been riding home support — they've played with a structure and tempo that would cause problems for most teams in this field. Whether that holds against a genuine heavyweight is the question the knockout stages will answer.
