"I confirm I have suggested to Trump and Infantino that Italy replace Iran at the World Cup." That sentence, from US special envoy Paolo Zampolli speaking to the Financial Times, tells you everything you need to know about how wild the lead-up to 2026 is getting.
Zampolli — an Italian-American socialite and businessman who claims to have introduced Donald Trump to Melania — has formally lobbied FIFA President Gianni Infantino to boot Iran from the tournament and hand their spot to the Azzurri. Italy, who have four World Cup titles to their name, missed qualification for the third consecutive time last month after losing a penalty shootout to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the playoff final. Under normal rules, they're staying home. These are not normal times.
Politics dressed up as football logic
The pitch isn't purely about sporting merit — Zampolli is upfront that this is partly a diplomatic play. The move is reportedly designed to patch up relations between Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who clashed with the US president after she criticized his attack on Pope Leo XIV during the Iran conflict. Nothing says "let's be friends again" like handing your ally a World Cup berth.
Iran's participation has been in genuine doubt since the war with the US and Israel broke out on February 28. The Iranian football federation had already been in talks with FIFA about moving their group stage matches from the United States to Mexico. That's a real and unresolved logistical question — one that gives the replacement conversation at least a thin sliver of practical framing.
But FIFA isn't biting. Infantino traveled to Turkey last month to watch Iran's friendly against Costa Rica, and was unambiguous afterward: Iran will be at the World Cup, playing "where they are supposed to be, according to the draw." That's about as firm a rebuttal as you get from football's governing body without a formal statement.
What it means for the draw and the odds
Until FIFA officially confirms Iran's group stage opponents and venues, there's a real asterisk hanging over that section of the bracket. Any team drawn alongside Iran in a US-based group will be watching this situation closely — venue changes affect travel, preparation and crowd dynamics in ways that quietly shift competitive balance.
Italy's odds of appearing at a home-soil tournament for the host continent remain, officially, zero. Zampolli calls it a "dream." Infantino has essentially called it a non-starter. The dream stays a dream.
