"Why not us?" That's what Mauricio Pochettino keeps saying. After a 2-0 win over Australia sealed a place in the World Cup knockouts — the first time the U.S. has won two group games at a World Cup since 1930 — it's getting harder to dismiss as mere manager speak.
Opta's supercomputer puts their chances of lifting the trophy at 2.84%. As one writer put it, that's a Dumb and Dumber situation: so you're telling me there's a chance? Ten teams have better odds, including Norway, the Netherlands, and Colombia. They're ahead of Belgium, Switzerland, and Mexico. That's roughly the right place to put them.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic, working as a pundit for Fox, answered the "can the U.S. win it?" question with a one-word answer: "Yes." Most experts aren't quite that bold — but they're not laughing it off either.
The path matters as much as the team
The clearest case for optimism isn't the squad — it's the bracket. Winning Group D likely puts the U.S. on the softer side of the draw, the same structural advantage that carried England to the 2018 semi-finals and the Euro 2024 final. That matters enormously when you're asking a team to beat three or four elite sides back-to-back.
Pochettino has this team pressing aggressively, moving the ball quickly down the wings, and playing with genuine belief. Alex Freeman and Malik Tillman have both impressed. Christian Pulisic is a problem for any defence — when fit, and that calf injury is worth watching closely as the knockout rounds approach.
The harder question is what happens when the opposition quality jumps. Paraguay and Australia are not France. Not Spain. The USMNT haven't beaten a top-10 European side in over a decade — not in a friendly, not in competitive football, not once with any player currently in this squad. Going deep means doing it three or four times in a row.
Quarterfinals is the realistic ceiling — for now
The consensus among those who've watched this team closely lands in the same place: quarterfinals are genuinely achievable, semi-finals would be historic, winning the whole thing would require something close to a miracle. The second-half frailties that crept in against Australia will be punished harder by top-20 sides. The goalkeeper and back line haven't been seriously tested yet.
None of that diminishes what's already happened. Two wins, a nation turning on to the sport in real numbers, and a coach who has given this generation a clear identity and genuine tactical structure. A deep run — even a quarterfinal exit against France or Spain — would be the most significant result in U.S. men's football history.
But the trophy? Pochettino believes. The players believe. The Opta model gives them a 2.84% shot. All three of those things can be true at the same time.
