"We have a huge number of matches that are completely uninteresting." That was UEFA President Aleksander Čeferin last Sunday. Through 24 games, the numbers disagree with him.
When FIFA announced the expansion to 48 teams, the criticism was loud and largely consistent: more minnows means more walkovers, more dead rubbers, more embarrassing scorelines dragging down the tournament's credibility. The goal differential after the first 24 matches? Exactly 35 — identical to Qatar 2022 at the same stage. Goals are up (75 vs. 57 four years ago), but the gaps between teams? Barely moved.
The upsets nobody saw coming
Cape Verde — ranked 67th entering the tournament and one of the smallest nations ever to qualify — held European champions Spain to a 0-0 draw. Congo, back at a World Cup for the first time since 1974 when they competed as Zaire, came away with a 1-1 draw against Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal. New Zealand, the lowest-ranked side in the entire tournament at 85th, drew 1-1 with Iran.
Spain coach Luis de la Fuente put it plainly: "These teams have their limitations, but they do what they do well. In every match you have to be fully focused and extremely precise to be able to overcome your rivals." That's a candid admission from a coach whose side came in ranked second in the world.
Yes, Germany put seven past Curacao. Qatar got hammered 6-0 by co-host Canada. Haiti went out after two matches without scoring. The blowouts happened. But they didn't define the tournament the way critics predicted they would.
Why the gap is closing
Mexico coach Javier Aguirre summed up what coaches and analysts have been saying for years: global football has genuinely leveled up. More players from smaller nations are competing in top European leagues. More elite coaches are taking jobs in less traditional football countries. Tactical and conditioning methods that once belonged exclusively to the big federations are now widely available.
"Until recently we didn't know much about Cape Verde, and there it is," Aguirre said. "Morocco played a tremendous match against Brazil."
This has real implications for how you approach betting on group stage matches in future expanded tournaments. The assumption that a top-20 side is safe against a 70th-ranked opponent is looking shakier than ever. Backing heavy favorites at short odds against so-called weaker nations just got riskier.
Tunisia coach Hervé Renard, preparing his side to face Japan, said Cape Verde's draw against Spain was already giving his squad belief. "We have to follow this example and not be scared of defeat."
Associations from Cape Verde, Congo, Curaçao, Haiti, Jordan and Uzbekistan responded to Čeferin's comments with a joint statement: "Football does not belong to a select group of nations. Its strength comes from its universality."
After 24 games, the scoreline in that particular argument is also level.
