The field is set. Forty-eight teams. One hundred and four matches. Three countries. And enough political noise to drown out the football before a ball is kicked on June 11 in Mexico City.
Spain enter as Fifa's top-ranked side and the bookmakers' favorites. France and England trade second billing depending on which market you're looking at. Argentina, the defending champions, are chasing something no nation has done since Brazil in 1962 — back-to-back World Cups. That alone makes them worth serious consideration at any price.
The Messi Question Nobody Can Answer
Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni still hasn't confirmed Messi will play. The man himself, speaking to NBC News late last year, gave the kind of answer that suggests even he doesn't know: "I would like to be there, to be well and be an important part of helping my national team, if I am there." He'll turn 39 during the tournament. The groin issues are real. And yet — if he can run, he'll be there. Argentina's odds are priced assuming he plays. If he doesn't, that number needs to move significantly.
Ronaldo, at 41, is less of a question mark. Portugal's manager confirmed he wasn't in danger of missing the tournament despite sitting out two March friendlies. Six World Cups. The man is practically a recurring fixture.
Beyond the household names, Spain's Lamine Yamal and Portugal's Vitinha drew the most praise from the Guardian's 219-person panel of journalists and coaches asked to identify the tournament's most exciting player. Yamal, in particular, is worth watching in any market where Spain go deep.
The Politics Won't Stay Outside the Stadium
Four of the qualified nations — Iran, Haiti, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire — are directly targeted by US travel bans, though athlete exemptions exist. Five more — Algeria, Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal and Tunisia — now face a US State Department bond requirement of up to $15,000 to enter the country, with no exemption for athletes or officials. That's an extraordinary situation with no precedent in World Cup history.
Iran's participation is the most precarious. Following US and Israeli airstrikes on the country, the federation president floated a boycott of the United States but "not the World Cup" — suggesting Iran's group-stage games, scheduled for California and Seattle, could theoretically be relocated to Mexico. Fifa's Gianni Infantino said Tuesday that Iran "are going to play" and there is no "Plan B or C." Trump, for his part, said Iran shouldn't play "for their own life and safety." Infantino and Trump, of course, have developed quite the working relationship — Trump received the first-ever Fifa peace prize at the World Cup draw in December.
A European boycott, meanwhile, is extremely unlikely despite reported discussions among roughly 20 federation heads in January. The competitive and commercial pull of a home World Cup on American soil is simply too strong.
The Format, the Money, the Debutants
This is the first 48-team World Cup, and the expansion is worth understanding for what it actually is: a revenue exercise. Fifa projected the larger field would generate around $1 billion in additional income when it announced the change in 2017. The prize money reflects that — $50 million for the winners, $727 million distributed across all 48 participants.
Four nations debut: Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. Curaçao, population 165,000, will be the smallest nation ever to appear at a World Cup. Their head coach Dick Advocaat resigned in late February for family reasons, which is a remarkable subplot for a team that shouldn't have been there at all without the host-nation ripple effect through Concacaf.
- Format: 104 matches across the US (78), Mexico (13) and Canada (13)
- Opener: Mexico vs South Africa, Estadio Azteca, June 11
- Final: MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, July 19
- Ticket sales: Fifa's last-minute phase opens Wednesday; official resale marketplace opens Thursday
- TV (US): Fox (English), Telemundo/Universo (Spanish); BBC and ITV in the UK
The US men's national team, coached by Mauricio Pochettino, open against Paraguay in Inglewood on June 12. They're widely considered the most talented US squad in history, with more players at top European clubs than any previous generation. They're also perfectly capable of losing 5-2 to Belgium on a bad week. Home advantage matters — but only if the tournament build-up stops feeling like a State Department press conference.
Final rosters are due May 30. The draw is done. The noise has started. The football arrives June 11.
