"It is not about pressing constantly; it is about pressing intelligently." Oliver Kahn didn't come to flatter anyone ahead of the 2026 World Cup semi-finals — he came with a thesis, and it's a good one.
The former Bayern Munich and Germany goalkeeper, the only player in history to win the Golden Ball at a World Cup as a goalkeeper (2002), believes the team that locks down central areas will lock down the trophy. Not the team with the flashiest attack. Not the team with the biggest names. The team that controls the middle third and forces the opposition wide.
France the slight favourite — but only just
Kahn's pick to lift the trophy is France, though he's careful not to overstate it. "They look the most complete side in terms of balance, depth and their ability to win games in different ways," he said. "But the margins between these four teams are extremely small, and any one of them is capable of lifting the World Cup."
That's the honest read. France's ability to win ugly as well as win well is the thing that separates them from sides that rely on a single system. It also makes them the steadiest option on the outright market — and the hardest team to get value against in the semi-final.
That semi-final comes against Spain on Wednesday at Dallas Stadium. For Kahn, Spain's path is clear in theory but demanding in execution: move the ball quickly, create overloads, and maintain defensive shape against a French side that punishes transition errors as well as anyone in the tournament. "Spain have to stay patient but purposeful," he said. In other words, one lapse in concentration could end their campaign before they've had a chance to impose themselves.
Messi, Ronaldo, and the other side of the draw
While France and Spain go at it first, Argentina face England in the second semi-final — a fixture that needs no extra narrative weight, but has plenty anyway. Kahn took a moment to reflect on Messi's career arc, placing it alongside Ronaldo's in a rivalry he thinks football won't see replicated.
"Their rivalry was never based on words, but on performances. Every season, they've pushed each other to be even better," Kahn said. He's right that it's extraordinary — two players at opposite ends of the world stage still relevant at a tournament of this scale, still making the difference.
Kahn also made a point about goalkeepers that goes beyond sentiment. "Modern goalkeepers are effectively the first attackers as well as the last defenders. One good decision, or one mistake from a goalkeeper, can completely change the outcome." At this stage of the tournament, with margins this thin, that's not a philosophical point — it's a tactical one. The gloves could decide it.
"The best teams stick to their game plan. They don't panic, stay emotionally disciplined and continue making good decisions under pressure," Kahn added. After 86 caps and a career defined by exactly that quality, he'd know.
