Lionel Messi has missed both penalties he's taken at the 2026 World Cup. He shot wide against Austria. He was saved against Egypt. That's two gifts handed back at a stage of the tournament where the margin between glory and elimination is razor-thin.
And the uncomfortable truth? It's not a blip. It's who Messi is from the spot.
His career conversion rate sits at 77% — 114 scored from 148 taken. Opta benchmarks a penalty at 0.79 xG, meaning the average professional should convert 79% of the time. Messi is, statistically, a below-average penalty taker. That's a strange sentence to write about the greatest player of his generation, but the numbers don't care about his other gifts.
Argentina have no shortage of alternatives
Julian Alvarez is the obvious answer. He converts at 89.47% — 17 from 19 career attempts — hits them with pace and conviction, and has taken penalties on big occasions for River Plate, Manchester City, and Atletico Madrid. He's already Messi's partner up front at this World Cup. Handing him the ball from 12 yards is a logical next step.
Then there's Leandro Paredes, whose 93.75% career rate leads this entire group. Enzo Fernandez has scored six consecutive spot-kicks since his one miss for Chelsea. Alexis Mac Allister sits at 92.3%, though he hasn't taken a competitive penalty in over two years. Any of these three would be an upgrade on current arrangements.
- Julian Alvarez — 17/19, 89.47%
- Leandro Paredes — 15/16, 93.75%
- Enzo Fernandez — 11/12, 91.6%
- Alexis Mac Allister — 12/13, 92.3%
- Lautaro Martinez — 19/28, 67.85% (avoid)
Lautaro Martinez, for the record, misses roughly one in three. Cross him off the list entirely.
The question Scaloni has to ask himself
Messi is still the tournament's top scorer with eight goals in five matches. He's the all-time World Cup scoring leader with 21, and he's chasing Just Fontaine's single-tournament record of 13 — set in 1958. The two missed penalties haven't cost Argentina yet. But a quarterfinal against Switzerland is not the moment to keep testing that luck.
There's also the psychological dimension. The 39-year-old has scored four penalties across club and country at this tournament with his open-play finishing — the form is clearly there. Whether that confidence carries to the spot is a different question entirely, and the last two attempts suggest it doesn't.
Messi scored four penalties en route to the 2022 World Cup title and converted seven of nine in shootouts for Argentina overall. He's not allergic to pressure. But 0-for-2 at this tournament, on top of a career rate that was already below expectation, makes the case for a change difficult to dismiss.
Argentina's any-to-win odds would sharpen considerably if a quarterfinal or semifinal swings on a penalty. Paredes or Alvarez stepping up instead of Messi isn't a slight — it's the pragmatic call. Scaloni has never been afraid to make those.
