England's World Cup chances are being buried before a ball is kicked. Too hot, Bellingham drama, everyone else is better — the familiar funeral march has started early. But the case for optimism is stronger than the doom-merchants are letting on.
The squad stacks up better than people admit
Start with the basics. England have a real manager — one who has actually won things — rather than a tactically confused bloke in a waistcoat. Players are being picked in their proper positions. And the personnel, position by position, hold up against anyone outside the top two or three nations.
Two genuinely world-class players in Kane and Bellingham. Three more — Rice, James, Saka — who would walk into most international squads. And by combined squad value, England sit comfortably clear of every other team at the tournament. That's not sentiment. That's the market's verdict.
The midfield concern is real, though. England have historically been overrun by any side carrying a single elite central midfielder. Spain have Rodri. France's engine room is no joke. Tuchel's biggest job isn't picking the front three — it's building a midfield platform that doesn't cave the moment the pressure arrives.
You don't need to play well for 90 minutes
Liverpool's 2005 Champions League run is worth remembering here. That squad beat Chelsea, Juventus, and AC Milan — managed by Ancelotti and Mourinho — and produced one genuinely good performance across the lot. The rest was moments. Dudek. Gerrard. Shevchenko's saved penalty. Istanbul wasn't a masterclass. It was a collection of decisive individual actions when everything was on the line.
England have players built exactly for that. Pickford thrives in shootouts. Kane scores in finals. Bellingham wins moments for clubs with far more pressure attached than an international tournament. That matters more than whether they can control possession against Spain for 70 minutes.
As for the competition — France have a coach who looks lost, and the Mbappé situation hasn't gone away. Spain are dangerous but defensively patchable, and Yamal's durability over a full tournament is still an open question. Portugal's manager is genuinely poor. Argentina without peak Messi is a different proposition entirely. Germany have Havertz leading the line.
- France — strong players, weak coaching setup
- Spain — Rodri is a problem, but their defence can be exposed
- Portugal — too much depends on individual brilliance, too little structure
- Argentina — rebuilding around Messi's legacy, not his presence
- Germany — hard to read, but Havertz as a centre-forward is a gamble
England won't win it by playing the best football. They might win it by staying functional, avoiding injuries, and producing in the knockout rounds when one moment decides everything. That's not a romantic vision of success. It's a realistic one — and the odds probably don't fully reflect it yet.
