Kylian Mbappé scored three times in Real Madrid's opening two competitive fixtures, and he's already making sure the 100 journalists who vote for the Ballon d'Or are paying attention. The ceremony is on October 27 in London. The window for influencing those votes is right now.
Last season he put up 58 goals — 42 in 44 appearances for Madrid, 16 more for France that earned him the World Cup Golden Boot. He's also won back-to-back Pichichi awards in LaLiga. The output isn't the question. It never really was.
Why this season start actually matters for the vote
The Ballon d'Or has no fixed criteria. Journalists weigh club trophies, international tournaments, raw numbers, and yes — gut feeling shaped by recent memory. With the voting window technically closing on July 19, the start of this season shouldn't matter. But it does. Narrative momentum is real, and Mbappé is building one.
His competition isn't lightweight. Rodri, Harry Kane, Fabián Ruiz and Lamine Yamal are all in the conversation. Spain won the World Cup, and historically the award tilts toward the world champion nation — though 2010 proved that's not a guarantee. The field is genuinely open, which means early-season form carries more weight than usual.
What's changed at Madrid is also worth watching. José Mourinho has pushed a unity message hard, and by all accounts the dressing room has responded. Old fault lines appear to have closed. Mbappé himself has been candid about needing his teammates — goals don't come in isolation, and he knows it. That buy-in makes Madrid more dangerous as a collective, which only inflates his counting stats over time.
The betting picture
With no runaway favorite, Mbappé's Ballon d'Or odds are worth tracking as the early weeks of the season unfold. Three goals already, a settled team environment, and the world's most watched club behind him — if the form holds through the Champions League group stage, his price will shorten fast.
France Football's 30-man nominee list drops in the coming days. After that, the lobbying — intentional or not — begins in earnest. Mbappé has already fired his opening shot.
